Dinamo Bucuresti 4–1 Petrolul Ploiesti

Dinamo Bucuresti

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Petrolul Ploiesti

D. Politic 86' (pen)

A. Selmani 61'

C. Cîrjan 41'

H. Abdallah 12'

V. Țicu 82'

7/21/2024

Liga I · Round 2Stadionul Arcul de Triumf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Dinamo Bucuresti50%

×Draw27%

Petrolul Ploiesti23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo BucurestiExpected goals in this matchPetrolul Ploiesti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.85

Dinamo Bucuresti

1.39

Petrolul Ploiesti

0.85

Dinamo Bucuresti creates 64% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 22 away

1.50

creates per match

0.82

0.88

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Dinamo Bucuresti

1.50

Petrolul Ploiesti

0.82

allows per match

Dinamo Bucuresti

0.88

Petrolul Ploiesti

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Bucuresti+0.00on par

Petrolul Ploiesti+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Bucuresti ↓

Petrolul Ploiesti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Dinamo Bucuresti or draw

77%

Dinamo Bucuresti or Petrolul Ploiesti

73%

Draw or Petrolul Ploiesti

50%

Winning margin

Dinamo Bucuresti wins by 2+

24%

Petrolul Ploiesti wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Dinamo Bucuresti 1+ goals

75%

Dinamo Bucuresti 2+ goals

40%

Dinamo Bucuresti 3+ goals

16%

Petrolul Ploiesti 1+ goals

57%

Petrolul Ploiesti 2+ goals

21%

Petrolul Ploiesti 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Bucuresti (draw refunded)

68%

Petrolul Ploiesti (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Bucuresti at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.88 · 26 matches

Petrolul Ploiesti away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.27 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Bucuresti attack 1.50 + Petrolul Ploiesti defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.39

Petrolul Ploiesti attack 0.82 + Dinamo Bucuresti defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dinamo Bucuresti scores more

50%

level

27%

Petrolul Ploiesti scores more

23%

Dinamo Bucuresti at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dinamo Bucuresti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

A. Selmani

Dinamo Bucuresti · F

8.3

Match Events

12'

H. Abdallah↳ A. Selmani

22'

Ricardinho

34'

Dennis Politic

41'

C. Cîrjan↳ A. Selmani

46'

46'

56'

61'

62'

S. Hanca← L. Dumitriu

62'

M. Rădulescu← A. Berisha

77'

A. Borduşanu← C. Cîrjan

77'

82'

82'

83'

86'

D. PoliticPenalty

87'

C. Licsandru← G. Milanov

87'

M. Sivis← C. Costin

90+1'

A. Caragea← D. Politic

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DinamoPetrolul

Overview

55%Possession45%

6Total Shots5

1.96Expected Goals (xG)0.36

5Corners3

14Fouls12

Shots

6Total Shots5

4On Target1

1Off Target2

1Blocked2

6Inside Box4

0Outside Box1

Passing

55%Possession45%

421Total Passes340

345Accurate Passes253

82%Pass Accuracy74%

Discipline

14Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0