Dinamo Bucuresti vs Petrolul Ploiesti — Liga I 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 22+ matches
Dinamo Bucuresti50%
Petrolul Ploiesti23%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Dinamo Bucuresti creates 64% more chances
Season form · 26 home / 22 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under61
- Over39
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No57
- Yes43
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Dinamo Bucuresti ↓
Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Dinamo Bucuresti at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.88 · 26 matches
Petrolul Ploiesti away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.27 · 22 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Dinamo Bucuresti attack 1.50 + Petrolul Ploiesti defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.39
Petrolul Ploiesti attack 0.82 + Dinamo Bucuresti defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.85
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 50%?"
Dinamo Bucuresti at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 50% does not mean "Dinamo Bucuresti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Universitatea Craiova
Rapid
Universitatea Cluj
CFR 1907 ClujDinamo Bucuresti
Arges Pitesti
FCSB
Uta Arad
FC Botosani
Oţelul
Farul ConstantaPetrolul Ploiesti
Csikszereda
Unirea Slobozia
AFC Hermannstadt
MetaloglobusIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Dinamo Bucuresti host Petrolul Ploiesti on Friday, 30 January 2026 at 18:00. The match is part of the Liga I 2026/2027 season.
Liga I: Dinamo Bucuresti 1–1 Petrolul Ploiesti
Dinamo Bucuresti and Petrolul Ploiesti drew 1-1 in Liga I on January 30, 2026.
Goals: D. Armstrong (64'), G. Grozav (82').
Dinamo Bucuresti controlled possession (75%) and registered 21 shots to 7.
The match was played at Stadionul Arcul de Triumf in Bucharest.