Petrolul Ploiesti 1–0 Dinamo Bucuresti

Petrolul Ploiesti

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dinamo Bucuresti

1/20/2024

Liga I · Round 22Stadionul Ilie Oană

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Petrolul Ploiesti43%

×Draw27%

Dinamo Bucuresti29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Petrolul PloiestiExpected goals in this matchDinamo Bucuresti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.06

Petrolul Ploiesti

1.35

Dinamo Bucuresti

1.06

Petrolul Ploiesti creates 27% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 138 away

1.09

creates per match

0.99

1.13

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Petrolul Ploiesti

1.09

Dinamo Bucuresti

0.99

allows per match

Petrolul Ploiesti

1.13

Dinamo Bucuresti

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Petrolul Ploiesti+0.00on par

Dinamo Bucuresti+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petrolul Ploiesti ↓

Dinamo Bucuresti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Petrolul Ploiesti or draw

71%

Petrolul Ploiesti or Dinamo Bucuresti

73%

Draw or Dinamo Bucuresti

57%

Winning margin

Petrolul Ploiesti wins by 2+

20%

Dinamo Bucuresti wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Petrolul Ploiesti 1+ goals

74%

Petrolul Ploiesti 2+ goals

39%

Petrolul Ploiesti 3+ goals

15%

Dinamo Bucuresti 1+ goals

65%

Dinamo Bucuresti 2+ goals

29%

Dinamo Bucuresti 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Petrolul Ploiesti (draw refunded)

60%

Dinamo Bucuresti (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petrolul Ploiesti at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.13 · 79 matches

Dinamo Bucuresti away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.62 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petrolul Ploiesti attack 1.09 + Dinamo Bucuresti defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.35

Dinamo Bucuresti attack 0.99 + Petrolul Ploiesti defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Petrolul Ploiesti scores more

43%

level

27%

Dinamo Bucuresti scores more

29%

Petrolul Ploiesti at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Petrolul Ploiesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff