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Petrocub vs CSF Bălți — Cupa 2020

Petrocub
Petrocubadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
CSF Bălți
CSF Bălți
D. Puscas 18'
3/4/2026CupaCupa · Quarter-finalsStadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Petrocub81%
×Draw12%
CSF Bălți7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petrocub
3.16
CSF Bălți
0.88

Petrocub creates 259% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 7 away

creates per match

Petrocub
4.46
CSF Bălți
1.14

allows per match

Petrocub
0.62
CSF Bălți
1.86

finishing

Petrocub+0.00on par
CSF Bălți+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petrocub ↓

CSF Bălți →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Petrocub or draw
93%
Petrocub or CSF Bălți
88%
Draw or CSF Bălți
19%

Winning margin

Petrocub wins by 2+
62%
CSF Bălți wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Petrocub 1+ goals
96%
Petrocub 2+ goals
82%
Petrocub 3+ goals
59%
CSF Bălți 1+ goals
59%
CSF Bălți 2+ goals
22%
CSF Bălți 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Petrocub (draw refunded)
92%
CSF Bălți (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petrocub at home — creates 4.46, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

CSF Bălți away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petrocub attack 4.46 + CSF Bălți defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 3.16

CSF Bălți attack 1.14 + Petrocub defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Petrocub scores more
81%
level
12%
CSF Bălți scores more
7%

Petrocub at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Petrocub will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
D. Puscas
40'
I. Jardan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cupa: Petrocub 1–0 CSF Bălți

Petrocub beat CSF Bălți 1-0 in Cupa on March 4, 2026.

Goals: D. Puscas (18').

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal in Hincesti.