CSF Bălți 0–2 Petrocub: Result & Stats | Super Liga

CSF Bălți

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Petrocub

I. Jardan 41'

V. Ambros 30' (pen)

4/5/2026

Super Liga · Championship Group - 4Stadionul Orasenesc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

CSF Bălți25%

×Draw26%

Petrocub49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSF BălțiExpected goals in this matchPetrocub

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.49

CSF Bălți

0.98

Petrocub

1.49

Petrocub creates 52% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 94 away

1.21

creates per match

1.73

1.25

allows per match

0.76

creates per match

CSF Bălți

1.21

Petrocub

1.73

allows per match

CSF Bălți

1.25

Petrocub

0.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSF Bălți+0.00on par

Petrocub+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSF Bălți ↓

Petrocub →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–113%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

CSF Bălți or draw

51%

CSF Bălți or Petrocub

74%

Draw or Petrocub

75%

Winning margin

CSF Bălți wins by 2+

9%

Petrocub wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

CSF Bălți 1+ goals

62%

CSF Bălți 2+ goals

26%

CSF Bălți 3+ goals

8%

Petrocub 1+ goals

77%

Petrocub 2+ goals

44%

Petrocub 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

CSF Bălți (draw refunded)

34%

Petrocub (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSF Bălți at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.25 · 63 matches

Petrocub away — creates 1.73, concedes 0.76 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSF Bălți attack 1.21 + Petrocub defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.98

Petrocub attack 1.73 + CSF Bălți defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

CSF Bălți scores more

25%

level

26%

Petrocub scores more

49%

Petrocub at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Petrocub will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

30'

V. AmbrosPenalty

41'

I. Jardan

43'

O. David← V. Ambros

56'

88'

CSF

Petrocub

1

Smalenea

90

⚽

3

44

66

11

79

9

⚽

▼

13

37

15

1

2

3

4

7

8

21

22

29

94

CSF Bălți substitutes

33Nazarciuc5Platica10Cociuc11Covalschi31Costin32Taira55Botan

Manager: Shota Makharadze

43'▲O. David←▼V. Ambros

Petrocub substitutes

31Dodon4Buruiana8Demian19Rotaru23Lupan24David27Sava50Tugulea92Nazari