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CSF Bălți vs Petrocub — Cupa 2020

CSF Bălți
CSF Bălți
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Petrocub
Petrocub
V. Boico 59'
P. Popescu 85'
4/22/2026CupaCupa · Quarter-finalsStadionul Orasenesc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

CSF Bălți65%
×Draw19%
Petrocub16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSF Bălți
2.31
Petrocub
1.07

CSF Bălți creates 116% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

creates per match

CSF Bălți
3.00
Petrocub
1.25

allows per match

CSF Bălți
0.90
Petrocub
1.63

finishing

CSF Bălți+0.00on par
Petrocub+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSF Bălți ↓

Petrocub →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

CSF Bălți or draw
84%
CSF Bălți or Petrocub
81%
Draw or Petrocub
35%

Winning margin

CSF Bălți wins by 2+
42%
Petrocub wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

CSF Bălți 1+ goals
90%
CSF Bălți 2+ goals
67%
CSF Bălți 3+ goals
40%
Petrocub 1+ goals
66%
Petrocub 2+ goals
29%
Petrocub 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

CSF Bălți (draw refunded)
80%
Petrocub (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSF Bălți at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

Petrocub away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSF Bălți attack 3.00 + Petrocub defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 2.31

Petrocub attack 1.25 + CSF Bălți defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

CSF Bălți scores more
65%
level
19%
Petrocub scores more
16%

CSF Bălți at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "CSF Bălți will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'
V. Boico
85'
P. Popescu

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cupa: CSF Bălți 1–1 Petrocub

CSF Bălți and Petrocub drew 1-1 in Cupa on April 22, 2026.

Goals: V. Boico (59'), P. Popescu (85').

The match was played at Stadionul Orasenesc in Balti.