Petřín Plzeň 3–3 Aritma Praha: Result & Stats

Petřín Plzeň

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

Aritma Praha

9/6/2025

3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 5SK Petrin Pilsen - grass

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Petřín Plzeň38%

×Draw25%

Aritma Praha37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Petřín PlzeňExpected goals in this matchAritma Praha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.45

Petřín Plzeň

1.46

Aritma Praha

1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 16 away

1.23

creates per match

1.13

1.77

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Petřín Plzeň

1.23

Aritma Praha

1.13

allows per match

Petřín Plzeň

1.77

Aritma Praha

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Petřín Plzeň+0.00on par

Aritma Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petřín Plzeň ↓

Aritma Praha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Petřín Plzeň or draw

63%

Petřín Plzeň or Aritma Praha

75%

Draw or Aritma Praha

62%

Winning margin

Petřín Plzeň wins by 2+

18%

Aritma Praha wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Petřín Plzeň 1+ goals

77%

Petřín Plzeň 2+ goals

43%

Petřín Plzeň 3+ goals

18%

Aritma Praha 1+ goals

77%

Aritma Praha 2+ goals

42%

Aritma Praha 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Petřín Plzeň (draw refunded)

50%

Aritma Praha (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petřín Plzeň at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.77 · 31 matches

Aritma Praha away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petřín Plzeň attack 1.23 + Aritma Praha defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.46

Aritma Praha attack 1.13 + Petřín Plzeň defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Petřín Plzeň scores more

38%

level

25%

Aritma Praha scores more

37%

Petřín Plzeň at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Petřín Plzeň will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff