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Aritma Praha vs Petřín Plzeň — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Aritma Praha
Aritma Praha
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Petřín Plzeň
Petřín Plzeň
4/15/20234. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 22Areál Aritmy UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Aritma Praha50%
×Draw22%
Petřín Plzeň28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aritma Praha
1.90
Petřín Plzeň
1.36

Aritma Praha creates 40% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 55 away

creates per match

Aritma Praha
2.13
Petřín Plzeň
2.05

allows per match

Aritma Praha
0.67
Petřín Plzeň
1.67

finishing

Aritma Praha+0.00on par
Petřín Plzeň+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aritma Praha ↓

Petřín Plzeň →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Aritma Praha or draw
72%
Aritma Praha or Petřín Plzeň
78%
Draw or Petřín Plzeň
50%

Winning margin

Aritma Praha wins by 2+
28%
Petřín Plzeň wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Aritma Praha 1+ goals
85%
Aritma Praha 2+ goals
56%
Aritma Praha 3+ goals
29%
Petřín Plzeň 1+ goals
74%
Petřín Plzeň 2+ goals
39%
Petřín Plzeň 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Aritma Praha (draw refunded)
64%
Petřín Plzeň (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aritma Praha at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.67 · 45 matches

Petřín Plzeň away — creates 2.05, concedes 1.67 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aritma Praha attack 2.13 + Petřín Plzeň defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.90

Petřín Plzeň attack 2.05 + Aritma Praha defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Aritma Praha scores more
50%
level
22%
Petřín Plzeň scores more
28%

Aritma Praha at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Aritma Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aritma Praha vs Petřín Plzeň

Aritma Praha and Petřín Plzeň drew 1-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on April 15, 2023.

The match was played at Areál Aritmy UMT in Praha.