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Petřín Plzeň vs Aritma Praha — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Petřín Plzeň
Petřín Plzeň
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Aritma Praha
Aritma Praha
3/23/20244. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 19Stadion TJ Dynamo ZČE Plzeň

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Petřín Plzeň42%
×Draw23%
Aritma Praha35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petřín Plzeň
1.78
Aritma Praha
1.61

Petřín Plzeň creates 11% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 45 away

creates per match

Petřín Plzeň
2.47
Aritma Praha
1.98

allows per match

Petřín Plzeň
1.25
Aritma Praha
1.09

finishing

Petřín Plzeň+0.00on par
Aritma Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petřín Plzeň ↓

Aritma Praha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Petřín Plzeň or draw
65%
Petřín Plzeň or Aritma Praha
77%
Draw or Aritma Praha
58%

Winning margin

Petřín Plzeň wins by 2+
22%
Aritma Praha wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Petřín Plzeň 1+ goals
83%
Petřín Plzeň 2+ goals
53%
Petřín Plzeň 3+ goals
26%
Aritma Praha 1+ goals
80%
Aritma Praha 2+ goals
48%
Aritma Praha 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Petřín Plzeň (draw refunded)
55%
Aritma Praha (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petřín Plzeň at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.25 · 55 matches

Aritma Praha away — creates 1.98, concedes 1.09 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petřín Plzeň attack 2.47 + Aritma Praha defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.78

Aritma Praha attack 1.98 + Petřín Plzeň defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Petřín Plzeň scores more
42%
level
23%
Aritma Praha scores more
35%

Petřín Plzeň at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Petřín Plzeň will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Petřín Plzeň 1 – 1 Aritma Praha

Petřín Plzeň and Aritma Praha drew 1-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion TJ Dynamo ZČE Plzeň in Plzeň.