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Peterborough vs Northampton — League One 2025

Peterborough
Peterborough
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Northampton
Northampton
H. Leonard 48', 45'
T. Eaves 69'
12/13/2025League OneLeague One · Round 20Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Peterborough51%
×Draw24%
Northampton25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peterborough
1.71
Northampton
1.11

Peterborough creates 54% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 27 away

creates per match

Peterborough
1.63
Northampton
0.81

allows per match

Peterborough
1.41
Northampton
1.78

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par
Northampton+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Northampton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw
75%
Peterborough or Northampton
76%
Draw or Northampton
49%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+
28%
Northampton wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals
82%
Peterborough 2+ goals
51%
Peterborough 3+ goals
24%
Northampton 1+ goals
67%
Northampton 2+ goals
30%
Northampton 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)
68%
Northampton (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.41 · 32 matches

Northampton away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.78 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.63 + Northampton defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.71

Northampton attack 0.81 + Peterborough defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Peterborough scores more
51%
level
24%
Northampton scores more
25%

Peterborough at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27
H. LeonardPeterboroughPeterborough · F
8.5

Match Events

10'
Jack Perkins
45'
H. Leonard↳ A. Collins
48'
H. Leonard
52'
Peter Kioso
56'
J. Burroughs← E. Wheatley
56'
T. Eaves← D. Campbell
56'
T. Fornah← S. Hoskins
63'
J. Dornelly← P. Kioso
67'
J. Guthrie← M. Dyche
67'
K. Swyer← E. List
69'
T. Eaves
70'
D. O'Brien-Brady← B. Woods
78'
D. Frith← J. Morgan
89'
Harry Leonard
90+3'
Matthew Garbett

Possession

70%Peterborough

Shots

31Peterborough

Pass accuracy

59%Peterborough

Statistics

PeterboroughNorthampton
Overview
70%Possession30%
31Total Shots9
4.08Expected Goals (xG)1.33
4Corners8
9Fouls5
Shots
31Total Shots9
10On Target3
12Off Target5
9Blocked1
24Inside Box6
7Outside Box3
Passing
70%Possession30%
516Total Passes217
444Accurate Passes127
86%Pass Accuracy59%
Goalkeeping
3Saves8
Discipline
9Fouls5
3Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards1
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Peterborough vs Northampton

Peterborough beat Northampton 2-1 in League One on December 13, 2025.

Goals: H. Leonard (45', 48'), T. Eaves (69').

Peterborough controlled possession (70%) and registered 31 shots to 9.

The match was played at Weston Homes Stadium in Peterborough.