Peterborough 0–4 Northampton: Result & Stats

Peterborough

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Northampton

T. Eaves 90'

D. Costelloe 41'

S. Hoskins 34' (pen), 15'

4/5/2025

League One · Round 41Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Peterborough55%

×Draw23%

Northampton22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeterboroughExpected goals in this matchNorthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.07

Peterborough

1.83

Northampton

1.07

Peterborough creates 71% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 27 away

1.87

creates per match

0.81

1.33

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Peterborough

1.87

Northampton

0.81

allows per match

Peterborough

1.33

Northampton

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par

Northampton+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Northampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw

78%

Peterborough or Northampton

77%

Draw or Northampton

45%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+

31%

Northampton wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals

84%

Peterborough 2+ goals

54%

Peterborough 3+ goals

28%

Northampton 1+ goals

66%

Northampton 2+ goals

29%

Northampton 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)

71%

Northampton (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.33 · 45 matches

Northampton away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.78 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.87 + Northampton defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.83

Northampton attack 0.81 + Peterborough defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Peterborough scores more

55%

level

23%

Northampton scores more

22%

Peterborough at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

S. Hoskins

Northampton · F

8.6

Match Events

15'

S. Hoskins↳ C. McGeehan

27'

Adetayo Edun

27'

Cameron McGeehan

32'

C. Johnston← M. Mothersille

34'

S. HoskinsPenalty

41'

D. Costelloe↳ C. McGeehan

46'

R. De Havilland← A. Collins

46'

C. Hayes← K. Poku

46'

Mahamadou Susoho← H. Kyprianou

64'

T. Eaves← C. McGeehan

64'

A. Odimayo← A. McGowan

65'

T. Roberts← D. Costelloe

72'

T. Fosu← S. Hoskins

73'

M. Dyche← L. Mbete

74'

G. Lindgren← R. Jones

90'

T. Eaves↳ M. Pinnock

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PeterboroughNorthampton

Overview

53%Possession47%

8Total Shots22

4Corners7

8Fouls14

Shots

8Total Shots22

3On Target13

2Off Target2

3Blocked7

6Inside Box16

2Outside Box6

Passing

53%Possession47%

414Total Passes356

315Accurate Passes248

76%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

7Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls14

0Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1