Northampton 1–1 Peterborough: Result & Stats

Northampton

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Peterborough

T. Eaves 44'

J. Morgan 52'

2/28/2026

League One · Round 35Sixfields Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Northampton37%

×Draw26%

Peterborough36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorthamptonExpected goals in this matchPeterborough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.29

Northampton

1.31

Peterborough

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 30 away

1.08

creates per match

1.33

1.24

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Northampton

1.08

Peterborough

1.33

allows per match

Northampton

1.24

Peterborough

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Northampton+0.00on par

Peterborough+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Peterborough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Northampton or draw

64%

Northampton or Peterborough

74%

Draw or Peterborough

63%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+

17%

Peterborough wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals

73%

Northampton 2+ goals

38%

Northampton 3+ goals

14%

Peterborough 1+ goals

72%

Peterborough 2+ goals

37%

Peterborough 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)

51%

Peterborough (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.24 · 25 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.53 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.08 + Peterborough defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.31

Peterborough attack 1.33 + Northampton defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Northampton scores more

37%

level

26%

Peterborough scores more

36%

Northampton at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Northampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

T. Taylor

Northampton · M

7.6

Match Events

41'

44'

52'

60'

64'

69'

71'

E. List← T. Eaves

84'

K. Swyer← S. Hoskins

84'

D. Kamara← H. Leonard

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorthamptonPeterborough

Overview

42%Possession58%

11Total Shots10

2.00Expected Goals (xG)1.18

5Corners2

11Fouls11

Shots

11Total Shots10

6On Target4

3Off Target2

2Blocked4

8Inside Box6

3Outside Box4

Passing

42%Possession58%

290Total Passes416

192Accurate Passes327

66%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

9Offsides1