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Peterborough vs Northampton — League One 2018

Peterborough
Peterborough
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Northampton
Northampton
3/5/2024League OneLeague One · Round 27Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Peterborough56%
×Draw23%
Northampton22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peterborough
1.84
Northampton
1.06

Peterborough creates 74% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 94 away

creates per match

Peterborough
1.90
Northampton
0.96

allows per match

Peterborough
1.17
Northampton
1.78

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par
Northampton+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Northampton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw
78%
Peterborough or Northampton
77%
Draw or Northampton
44%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+
32%
Northampton wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals
84%
Peterborough 2+ goals
55%
Peterborough 3+ goals
28%
Northampton 1+ goals
65%
Northampton 2+ goals
29%
Northampton 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)
72%
Northampton (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.17 · 157 matches

Northampton away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.78 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.90 + Northampton defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.84

Northampton attack 0.96 + Peterborough defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Peterborough scores more
56%
level
23%
Northampton scores more
22%

Peterborough at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Peterborough vs Northampton

Peterborough beat Northampton 5-1 in League One on March 5, 2024.

The match was played at Weston Homes Stadium in Peterborough.