Peterborough 3–1 Northampton: Result & Stats

Peterborough

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Northampton

J. Clarke-Harris 67' (pen)

S. Szmodics 48', 33'

S. Hoskins 43' (pen)

4/16/2021

League One · Round 42Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Peterborough60%

×Draw20%

Northampton20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeterboroughExpected goals in this matchNorthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.18

Peterborough

2.21

Northampton

1.18

Peterborough creates 87% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 6 away

1.91

creates per match

0.85

1.51

allows per match

2.52

creates per match

Peterborough

1.91

Northampton

0.85

allows per match

Peterborough

1.51

Northampton

2.52

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

-0.52scores less than expected

finishing

Peterborough+0.17scores more

Northampton-0.52scores less

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Northampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw

80%

Peterborough or Northampton

80%

Draw or Northampton

40%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+

38%

Northampton wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals

89%

Peterborough 2+ goals

65%

Peterborough 3+ goals

38%

Northampton 1+ goals

69%

Northampton 2+ goals

33%

Northampton 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)

76%

Northampton (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.51 · 13 matches

Northampton away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.52 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.91 + Northampton defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 2.21

Northampton attack 0.85 + Peterborough defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Peterborough scores more

60%

level

20%

Northampton scores more

20%

Peterborough at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

D. Butler

Peterborough · D

8.2

Match Events

33'

S. Szmodics↳ D. Butler

42'

Mark Beevers

43'

S. HoskinsPenalty

48'

S. Szmodics↳ J. Taylor

56'

Shaun McWilliams

59'

C. Chukwuemeka← M. Marshall

62'

H. Burrows← S. Dembélé

67'

J. Clarke-HarrisPenalty

71'

D. Rose← S. McWilliams

76'

R. Korboa← A. Jones

79'

Danny Rose

88'

E. Hamilton← R. Brown

88'

R. Jones← J. Clarke-Harris

90'

Lloyd Jones

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PeterboroughNorthampton

Overview

54%Possession46%

10Total Shots9

2Corners3

13Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots9

5On Target4

3Off Target3

2Blocked2

7Inside Box6

3Outside Box3

Passing

54%Possession46%

526Total Passes425

415Accurate Passes313

79%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls14

1Yellow Cards3

5Offsides1

Match Recap: Peterborough vs Northampton

Peterborough beat Northampton 3-1 in League One on April 16, 2021.

Goals: S. Szmodics (33', 48'), S. Hoskins (43' pen), J. Clarke-Harris (67' pen).

Peterborough controlled possession (54%) and registered 10 shots to 9.

The match was played at Weston Homes Stadium in Peterborough.

Peterborough vs Northampton — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Peterborough vs Northampton