Peterborough 0–3 Ipswich: Result & Stats

Peterborough

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Ipswich

F. Ladapo 82'

C. Chaplin 57'

W. Burns 17'

4/22/2023

League One · Round 44Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Peterborough42%

×Draw26%

Ipswich32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeterboroughExpected goals in this matchIpswich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.22

Peterborough

1.44

Ipswich

1.22

Peterborough creates 18% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 84 away

1.88

creates per match

1.27

1.17

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Peterborough

1.88

Ipswich

1.27

allows per match

Peterborough

1.17

Ipswich

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par

Ipswich+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Ipswich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw

68%

Peterborough or Ipswich

74%

Draw or Ipswich

58%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+

20%

Ipswich wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals

76%

Peterborough 2+ goals

42%

Peterborough 3+ goals

18%

Ipswich 1+ goals

70%

Ipswich 2+ goals

34%

Ipswich 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)

57%

Ipswich (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.17 · 157 matches

Ipswich away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.01 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.88 + Ipswich defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.44

Ipswich attack 1.27 + Peterborough defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Peterborough scores more

42%

level

26%

Ipswich scores more

32%

Peterborough at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

C. Chaplin

Ipswich · M

7.9

Match Events

11'

17'

44'

46'

57'

C. Chaplin↳ N. Broadhead

65'

B. Thompson← H. Kyprianou

65'

H. Burrows← D. Butler

69'

Conor Chaplin

69'

J. Donacien← H. Clarke

74'

74'

75'

82'

85'

85'

M. Harness← N. Broadhead

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PeterboroughIpswich

Overview

54%Possession46%

11Total Shots15

3Corners6

8Fouls11

Shots

11Total Shots15

4On Target7

4Off Target4

3Blocked4

8Inside Box9

3Outside Box6

Passing

54%Possession46%

453Total Passes371

372Accurate Passes286

82%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls11

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Peterborough vs Ipswich

Ipswich beat Peterborough 3-0 in League One on April 22, 2023.

Goals: W. Burns (17'), C. Chaplin (57'), F. Ladapo (82').

Peterborough controlled possession (54%) and registered 11 shots to 15.

The match was played at Weston Homes Stadium in Peterborough.

Peterborough vs Ipswich — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Peterborough vs Ipswich