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Ipswich vs Peterborough — League One 2018

Ipswich
Ipswich
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Peterborough
Peterborough
M. McGuinness 69' (OG)
1/23/2021League OneLeague One · Round 25Portman Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Ipswich47%
×Draw25%
Peterborough28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ipswich
1.58
Peterborough
1.15

Ipswich creates 37% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 157 away

creates per match

Ipswich
1.70
Peterborough
1.46

allows per match

Ipswich
0.83
Peterborough
1.46

finishing

Ipswich+0.00on par
Peterborough+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich ↓

Peterborough →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Ipswich or draw
72%
Ipswich or Peterborough
75%
Draw or Peterborough
53%

Winning margin

Ipswich wins by 2+
24%
Peterborough wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ipswich 1+ goals
79%
Ipswich 2+ goals
47%
Ipswich 3+ goals
21%
Peterborough 1+ goals
68%
Peterborough 2+ goals
32%
Peterborough 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ipswich (draw refunded)
63%
Peterborough (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipswich at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.83 · 86 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.46 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich attack 1.70 + Peterborough defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.58

Peterborough attack 1.46 + Ipswich defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ipswich scores more
47%
level
25%
Peterborough scores more
28%

Ipswich at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
F. DownesIpswichIpswich · M
7.3

Match Events

45'
Jack Taylor
60'
Stephen Ward
69'
M. McGuinnessOwn goal
71'
Gwion Edwards
74'
L. Thomas← A. Judge
74'
F. Sears← A. Drinan
74'
J. Nolan← T. Bishop
82'
E. Hamilton← R. Brown
84'
R. Jade-Jones← S. Szmodics
89'
N. Mason← S. Dembélé

Possession

52%Ipswich

Shots

13Ipswich

Pass accuracy

49%Ipswich

Statistics

IpswichPeterborough
Overview
52%Possession48%
13Total Shots7
6Corners6
25Fouls9
Shots
13Total Shots7
1On Target0
6Off Target6
6Blocked1
10Inside Box4
3Outside Box3
Passing
52%Possession48%
379Total Passes364
258Accurate Passes253
68%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
0Saves1
Discipline
25Fouls9
2Yellow Cards1

Match Recap: Ipswich vs Peterborough

Peterborough beat Ipswich 1-0 in League One on January 23, 2021.

Goals: M. McGuinness (69' o.g.).

Ipswich controlled possession (52%) and registered 13 shots to 7.

The match was played at Portman Road in Ipswich, Suffolk.