Peterborough 2–1 Ipswich: Result & Stats

Peterborough

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Ipswich

J. Ward 50'

J. Clarke-Harris 38'

J. Norwood 6'

2/9/2021

League One · Round 19Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Peterborough42%

×Draw26%

Ipswich32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeterboroughExpected goals in this matchIpswich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.22

Peterborough

1.44

Ipswich

1.22

Peterborough creates 18% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 84 away

1.88

creates per match

1.27

1.17

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Peterborough

1.88

Ipswich

1.27

allows per match

Peterborough

1.17

Ipswich

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par

Ipswich+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Ipswich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw

68%

Peterborough or Ipswich

74%

Draw or Ipswich

58%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+

20%

Ipswich wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals

76%

Peterborough 2+ goals

42%

Peterborough 3+ goals

18%

Ipswich 1+ goals

70%

Ipswich 2+ goals

34%

Ipswich 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)

57%

Ipswich (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.17 · 157 matches

Ipswich away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.01 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.88 + Ipswich defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.44

Ipswich attack 1.27 + Peterborough defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Peterborough scores more

42%

level

26%

Ipswich scores more

32%

Peterborough at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

T. Holý

Ipswich · G

8.0

Match Events

6'

J. Norwood↳ T. Bishop

14'

Flynn Downes

38'

J. Clarke-Harris↳ D. Butler

46'

G. Edwards← J. Norwood

50'

J. Ward

64'

J. Harrop← A. Judge

74'

I. Kanu← J. Ward

74'

E. Hamilton← R. Brown

74'

R. Jade-Jones← M. Eisa

76'

Andre Dozzell

79'

F. Sears← T. Bishop

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PeterboroughIpswich

Overview

56%Possession44%

12Total Shots7

8Corners3

13Fouls24

Shots

12Total Shots7

9On Target4

2Off Target1

1Blocked2

6Inside Box5

6Outside Box2

Passing

56%Possession44%

453Total Passes349

333Accurate Passes228

74%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

3Saves7

Discipline

13Fouls24

0Yellow Cards2

4Offsides3