Peterborough 1–1 Bolton: Result & Stats

Peterborough

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Bolton

M. Mothersille 20' (pen)

C. Forino 33'

4/26/2025

League One · Round 45Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Peterborough44%

×Draw23%

Bolton32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeterboroughExpected goals in this matchBolton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.43

Peterborough

1.72

Bolton

1.43

Peterborough creates 20% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

2.04

creates per match

1.32

1.54

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Peterborough

2.04

Bolton

1.32

allows per match

Peterborough

1.54

Bolton

1.40

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

-0.72scores less than expected

finishing

Peterborough+0.21scores more

Bolton-0.72scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Bolton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw

68%

Peterborough or Bolton

77%

Draw or Bolton

56%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+

23%

Bolton wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals

82%

Peterborough 2+ goals

51%

Peterborough 3+ goals

25%

Bolton 1+ goals

76%

Bolton 2+ goals

42%

Bolton 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)

58%

Bolton (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.54 · 12 matches

Bolton away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 2.04 + Bolton defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.72

Bolton attack 1.32 + Peterborough defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Peterborough scores more

44%

level

23%

Bolton scores more

32%

Peterborough at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

C. Forino

Bolton · D

8.0

Match Events

16'

Klaidi Lolos

18'

Jay Matete

20'

Malik Mothersille

20'

M. MothersillePenalty

24'

Abraham Odoh

24'

George Thomason

33'

C. Forino

60'

K. Poku← A. Odoh

61'

R. Jones← G. Lindgren

65'

Gethin Jones

67'

Malik MothersilleMissed penalty

68'

Joel Randall

72'

Ryan De Havilland

73'

H. Kyprianou← C. Conn-Clarke

73'

J. Dornelly← H. Mills

73'

A. Collins← K. Lolos

78'

D. Lawrence← S. Schön

85'

Hector Kyprianou

89'

B. Shofowoke← M. Mothersille

90+5'

D. Abimbola← J. McAtee

90+4'

H. Rice← A. Murphy

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PeterboroughBolton

Overview

60%Possession40%

9Total Shots23

5Corners6

11Fouls13

Shots

9Total Shots23

4On Target5

3Off Target8

2Blocked10

8Inside Box14

1Outside Box9

Passing

60%Possession40%

510Total Passes342

422Accurate Passes269

83%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls13

4Yellow Cards5

0Offsides2

Match Recap: Peterborough vs Bolton

Peterborough and Bolton drew 1-1 in League One on April 26, 2025.

Goals: M. Mothersille (20' pen), C. Forino (33').

Peterborough controlled possession (60%) and registered 9 shots to 23.

The match was played at Weston Homes Stadium in Peterborough.

Peterborough vs Bolton — League One 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Peterborough vs Bolton