Bolton 2–1 Peterborough: Result & Stats

Bolton

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Peterborough

M. Burstow 21', 5'

P. Kioso 41'

10/4/2025

League One · Round 11Toughsheet Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Bolton52%

×Draw24%

Peterborough24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BoltonExpected goals in this matchPeterborough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.07

Bolton

1.70

Peterborough

1.07

Bolton creates 59% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 35 away

1.79

creates per match

1.29

0.85

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Bolton

1.79

Peterborough

1.29

allows per match

Bolton

0.85

Peterborough

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bolton+0.00on par

Peterborough+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

Peterborough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Bolton or draw

76%

Bolton or Peterborough

76%

Draw or Peterborough

48%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+

28%

Peterborough wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals

82%

Bolton 2+ goals

51%

Bolton 3+ goals

24%

Peterborough 1+ goals

66%

Peterborough 2+ goals

29%

Peterborough 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)

69%

Peterborough (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.85 · 33 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.60 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.79 + Peterborough defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.70

Peterborough attack 1.29 + Bolton defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bolton scores more

52%

level

24%

Peterborough scores more

24%

Bolton at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

48

M. Burstow

Bolton · F

8.2

Match Events

5'

M. Burstow↳ C. Christie

21'

M. Burstow↳ A. Cozier-Duberry

26'

41'

63'

63'

64'

72'

A. Odoh← J. Mendy

72'

K. Lisbie← J. Morgan

77'

A. Morley← E. Erhahon

83'

B. Khela← B. Woods

85'

J. Randall← M. Burstow

85'

E. Toal← C. Christie

87'

J. Dornelly← G. Nevett

88'

Teddy Sharman-Lowe

88'

Kyrell Lisbie

90+5'

Chris Forino

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BoltonPeterborough

Overview

51%Possession49%

19Total Shots9

7Corners1

9Fouls7

Shots

19Total Shots9

6On Target2

6Off Target3

7Blocked4

10Inside Box7

9Outside Box2

Passing

51%Possession49%

456Total Passes442

369Accurate Passes363

81%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls7

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides5