Peterborough 3–3 Bolton: Result & Stats

Peterborough

FT

3 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Bolton

M. Mothersille 79', 50'

J. Randall 67'

C. Jerome 82'

D. Charles 8' (pen)

K. Dempsey 4'

4/27/2024

League One · Round 46Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Peterborough45%

×Draw24%

Bolton31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeterboroughExpected goals in this matchBolton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.39

Peterborough

1.71

Bolton

1.39

Peterborough creates 23% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 6 away

2.04

creates per match

1.24

1.54

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Peterborough

2.04

Bolton

1.24

allows per match

Peterborough

1.54

Bolton

1.38

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

-0.57scores less than expected

finishing

Peterborough+0.21scores more

Bolton-0.57scores less

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Bolton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw

69%

Peterborough or Bolton

76%

Draw or Bolton

55%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+

24%

Bolton wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals

82%

Peterborough 2+ goals

51%

Peterborough 3+ goals

24%

Bolton 1+ goals

75%

Bolton 2+ goals

40%

Bolton 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)

59%

Bolton (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.54 · 12 matches

Bolton away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.38 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 2.04 + Bolton defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.71

Bolton attack 1.24 + Peterborough defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Peterborough scores more

45%

level

24%

Bolton scores more

31%

Peterborough at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

J. Randall

Peterborough · M

8.2

Match Events

4'

K. Dempsey↳ R. Williams

8'

D. CharlesPenalty

50'

M. Mothersille↳ D. Ajiboye

58'

Josh Dacres-Cogley

58'

J. Dornelly← J. Katongo

61'

George Thomason

66'

A. Morley← G. Thomason

67'

J. Randall↳ E. Mason-Clark

73'

Eoin Toal

75'

D. Nlundulu← A. Collins

75'

C. Jerome← D. Charles

79'

M. Mothersille↳ J. Randall

81'

J. Clarke-Harris← D. Ajiboye

81'

N. Ogbeta← R. Williams

81'

C. Taylor← Ricardo

82'

C. Jerome↳ N. Ogbeta

87'

Joel Randall

88'

E. Fernandez← E. Mason-Clark

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PeterboroughBolton

Overview

57%Possession43%

15Total Shots11

10Corners4

17Fouls17

Shots

15Total Shots11

6On Target4

2Off Target2

7Blocked5

10Inside Box8

5Outside Box3

Passing

57%Possession43%

502Total Passes372

417Accurate Passes284

83%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls17

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Peterborough vs Bolton

Peterborough and Bolton drew 3-3 in League One on April 27, 2024.

Goals: K. Dempsey (4'), D. Charles (8' pen), M. Mothersille (50', 79'), J. Randall (67'), C. Jerome (82').

Peterborough controlled possession (57%) and registered 15 shots to 11.

The match was played at Weston Homes Stadium in Peterborough.

Peterborough vs Bolton — League One 2024

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Peterborough vs Bolton