Peterborough 1–0 Bolton: Result & Stats

Peterborough

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bolton

I. Toney 23'

12/14/2019

League One · Round 21Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Peterborough41%

×Draw24%

Bolton35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeterboroughExpected goals in this matchBolton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.51

Peterborough

1.66

Bolton

1.51

Peterborough creates 10% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

1.91

creates per match

1.51

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Peterborough

1.91

Bolton

1.51

allows per match

Peterborough

1.51

Bolton

1.41

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

Peterborough+0.17scores more

Bolton-0.34scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Bolton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw

65%

Peterborough or Bolton

76%

Draw or Bolton

59%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+

21%

Bolton wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals

81%

Peterborough 2+ goals

49%

Peterborough 3+ goals

23%

Bolton 1+ goals

78%

Bolton 2+ goals

44%

Bolton 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)

54%

Bolton (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.51 · 13 matches

Bolton away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.41 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.91 + Bolton defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.66

Bolton attack 1.51 + Peterborough defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Peterborough scores more

41%

level

24%

Bolton scores more

35%

Peterborough at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

M. Beevers

Peterborough · D

7.6

Match Events

14'

N. Mason← N. Thompson

15'

Luke Murphy

23'

I. Toney↳ L. Reed

39'

Mohamed Eisa

56'

C. O'Grady← L. Zouma

56'

T. Verlinden← R. Darcy

74'

M. Maddison← S. Tasdemir

75'

R. Jade-Jones← M. Eisa

88'

Liam Bridcutt

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PeterboroughBolton

Overview

52%Possession48%

14Total Shots8

7Corners2

13Fouls20

Shots

14Total Shots8

4On Target2

6Off Target4

4Blocked2

12Inside Box5

2Outside Box3

Passing

52%Possession48%

379Total Passes340

270Accurate Passes216

71%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls20

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1