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Peterborough vs Barnsley — League One 2025

Peterborough
Peterborough
Preview
15:00
Barnsley
Barnsley
12/12/2026League OneLeague One · Round 19Weston Homes Stadium
Big match
41%
Peterborough
model favours
41%25%34%

91% of Barnsley’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Peterborough41%
×Draw25%
Barnsley34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peterborough
1.54
Barnsley
1.37

Peterborough creates 12% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 28 away

creates per match

Peterborough
1.63
Barnsley
1.36

allows per match

Peterborough
1.37
Barnsley
1.46

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par
Barnsley+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Barnsley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw
66%
Peterborough or Barnsley
75%
Draw or Barnsley
59%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+
20%
Barnsley wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals
79%
Peterborough 2+ goals
45%
Peterborough 3+ goals
20%
Barnsley 1+ goals
75%
Barnsley 2+ goals
40%
Barnsley 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)
55%
Barnsley (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

Barnsley away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.46 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.63 + Barnsley defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.54

Barnsley attack 1.36 + Peterborough defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Peterborough scores more
41%
level
25%
Barnsley scores more
34%

Peterborough at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Barnsley score first in only 18% of matches
  • Both teams score in 82% of Barnsley’s matches
  • Barnsley have won 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Barnsley fall short of their xG (1.2 vs 1.7 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Peterborough
Balanced
Barnsley
Balanced
57%Possession51%
79%Pass accuracy73%
13.4Shots12.3
1.41xGBiggest gap1.70
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
PeterboroughBarnsley

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

0
Peterborough
1
Draws
4
Barnsley
Avg goals: 2.2BTTS: 60%
1–20–10–11–11–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Peterborough
LDLDL
Barnsley
LWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Peterborough vs Barnsley — Match Preview

Peterborough face Barnsley on December 12, 2026 in this League One fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Peterborough host Barnsley at Weston Homes Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.