Peterborough 1–3 Barnsley: Result & Stats

Peterborough

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Barnsley

M. Mothersille 74' (pen)

J. Russell 86'

D. Keillor-Dunn 55'

D. Pines 47'

12/29/2024

League One · Round 23Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Peterborough44%

×Draw24%

Barnsley32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeterboroughExpected goals in this matchBarnsley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.37

Peterborough

1.66

Barnsley

1.37

Peterborough creates 21% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 29 away

1.87

creates per match

1.41

1.33

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Peterborough

1.87

Barnsley

1.41

allows per match

Peterborough

1.33

Barnsley

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par

Barnsley+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Barnsley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw

68%

Peterborough or Barnsley

76%

Draw or Barnsley

56%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+

23%

Barnsley wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals

81%

Peterborough 2+ goals

49%

Peterborough 3+ goals

23%

Barnsley 1+ goals

75%

Barnsley 2+ goals

40%

Barnsley 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)

58%

Barnsley (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.33 · 45 matches

Barnsley away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.45 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.87 + Barnsley defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.66

Barnsley attack 1.41 + Peterborough defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Peterborough scores more

44%

level

24%

Barnsley scores more

32%

Peterborough at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

40

D. Keillor-Dunn

Barnsley · F

7.6

Match Events

29'

Donovan Pines

47'

D. Pines↳ D. Keillor-Dunn

55'

D. Keillor-Dunn↳ C. O'Keeffe

58'

H. Mills← J. Sparkes

58'

C. Hayes← R. De Havilland

58'

S. Curtis← J. Katongo

62'

S. Cosgrove← M. Watters

74'

M. MothersillePenalty

75'

G. Gent← B. Cotter

75'

K. Nwakali← A. Phillips

81'

Harley Mills

84'

A. Odoh← C. Conn-Clarke

86'

J. Russell

88'

Corey O'Keeffe

90'

A. Marsh← D. Keillor-Dunn

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PeterboroughBarnsley

Overview

46%Possession54%

3Total Shots15

1Corners7

11Fouls14

Shots

3Total Shots15

2On Target6

1Off Target7

0Blocked2

2Inside Box10

1Outside Box5

Passing

46%Possession54%

337Total Passes388

233Accurate Passes297

69%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls14

0Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

2Offsides3