Barnsley 1–1 Peterborough: Result & Stats

Barnsley

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Peterborough

J. Russell 45+1'

R. Jones 17'

4/21/2025

League One · Round 44Oakwell

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Barnsley45%

×Draw24%

Peterborough31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarnsleyExpected goals in this matchPeterborough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.30

Barnsley

1.61

Peterborough

1.30

Barnsley creates 24% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 45 away

1.63

creates per match

1.13

1.48

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Barnsley

1.63

Peterborough

1.13

allows per match

Barnsley

1.48

Peterborough

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barnsley+0.00on par

Peterborough+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnsley ↓

Peterborough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Barnsley or draw

69%

Barnsley or Peterborough

76%

Draw or Peterborough

55%

Winning margin

Barnsley wins by 2+

23%

Peterborough wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Barnsley 1+ goals

80%

Barnsley 2+ goals

48%

Barnsley 3+ goals

22%

Peterborough 1+ goals

73%

Peterborough 2+ goals

37%

Peterborough 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Barnsley (draw refunded)

59%

Peterborough (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnsley at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.48 · 27 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.60 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnsley attack 1.63 + Peterborough defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.61

Peterborough attack 1.13 + Barnsley defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Barnsley scores more

45%

level

24%

Peterborough scores more

31%

Barnsley at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Barnsley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

J. Russell

Barnsley · M

7.9

Match Events

17'

R. Jones↳ A. Odoh

43'

Luca Connell

45+1'

J. Russell↳ D. Keillor-Dunn

46'

G. Lindgren← R. Jones

56'

M. Watters← Fábio Jaló

73'

C. Conn-Clarke← K. Poku

81'

J. Bland← B. Cotter

90+4'

Jonathan Bland

90+11'

Sam Hughes

90+10'

J. Dornelly← C. Johnston

90+6'

D. O'Brien-Brady← M. Mothersille

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BarnsleyPeterborough

Overview

55%Possession45%

13Total Shots8

5Corners3

13Fouls7

Shots

13Total Shots8

4On Target4

6Off Target2

3Blocked2

6Inside Box4

7Outside Box4

Passing

55%Possession45%

476Total Passes387

376Accurate Passes300

79%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls7

2Yellow Cards1

5Offsides4