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Barnsley vs Peterborough — League One 2025

Barnsley
Barnsley
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Peterborough
Peterborough
R. Cleary 53'
L. Connell 34'
K. Lisbie 21'
2/17/2026League OneLeague One · Round 33Oakwell

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Barnsley42%
×Draw24%
Peterborough34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barnsley
1.57
Peterborough
1.39

Barnsley creates 13% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 33 away

creates per match

Barnsley
1.63
Peterborough
1.30

allows per match

Barnsley
1.48
Peterborough
1.52

finishing

Barnsley+0.00on par
Peterborough+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnsley ↓

Peterborough →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Barnsley or draw
66%
Barnsley or Peterborough
76%
Draw or Peterborough
58%

Winning margin

Barnsley wins by 2+
21%
Peterborough wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Barnsley 1+ goals
79%
Barnsley 2+ goals
46%
Barnsley 3+ goals
21%
Peterborough 1+ goals
75%
Peterborough 2+ goals
40%
Peterborough 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Barnsley (draw refunded)
55%
Peterborough (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnsley at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.48 · 27 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.52 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnsley attack 1.63 + Peterborough defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.57

Peterborough attack 1.30 + Barnsley defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Barnsley scores more
42%
level
24%
Peterborough scores more
34%

Barnsley at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Barnsley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
C. O'KeeffeBarnsleyBarnsley · D
8.3

Match Events

21'
K. Lisbie
34'
L. Connell↳ C. O'Keeffe
51'
C. Hayes← K. Lisbie
53'
R. Cleary↳ C. O'Keeffe
59'
Adam Phillips
64'
T. Watson← G. Gent
74'
Carl Johnston
77'
P. Sykut← B. Khela
78'
T. Bradshaw← D. McGoldrick
83'
Luca Connell
86'
O. Aderoju← D. Frith
87'
J. Bland← A. Phillips
87'
M. de Gevigney← S. Banks

Possession

47%Barnsley

Shots

11Barnsley

Pass accuracy

49%Barnsley

Statistics

BarnsleyPeterborough
Overview
47%Possession53%
11Total Shots17
1.07Expected Goals (xG)2.04
3Corners5
14Fouls6
Shots
11Total Shots17
3On Target7
3Off Target6
5Blocked4
7Inside Box10
4Outside Box7
Passing
47%Possession53%
405Total Passes454
322Accurate Passes378
80%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
6Saves1
Discipline
14Fouls6
2Yellow Cards1
4Offsides2

League One: Barnsley 2–1 Peterborough

Barnsley beat Peterborough 2-1 in League One on February 17, 2026.

Goals: K. Lisbie (21'), L. Connell (34'), R. Cleary (53').

Peterborough controlled possession (53%) and registered 17 shots to 11.

The match was played at Oakwell in Barnsley.