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Peterborough vs Barnsley — League One 2018

Peterborough
Peterborough
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Barnsley
Barnsley
12/29/2023League OneLeague One · Round 25Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Peterborough43%
×Draw24%
Barnsley33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peterborough
1.60
Barnsley
1.38

Peterborough creates 16% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 118 away

creates per match

Peterborough
1.90
Barnsley
1.59

allows per match

Peterborough
1.17
Barnsley
1.31

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par
Barnsley+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Barnsley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw
67%
Peterborough or Barnsley
76%
Draw or Barnsley
57%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+
22%
Barnsley wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals
80%
Peterborough 2+ goals
47%
Peterborough 3+ goals
22%
Barnsley 1+ goals
75%
Barnsley 2+ goals
40%
Barnsley 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)
56%
Barnsley (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.17 · 157 matches

Barnsley away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.31 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.90 + Barnsley defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.60

Barnsley attack 1.59 + Peterborough defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Peterborough scores more
43%
level
24%
Barnsley scores more
33%

Peterborough at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Peterborough 2–2 Barnsley

Peterborough and Barnsley drew 2-2 in League One on December 29, 2023.

The match was played at Weston Homes Stadium in Peterborough.