Peterborough 1–2 Barnsley: Result & Stats

Peterborough

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Barnsley

J. Taylor 21'

A. Phillips 61'

L. Connell 11'

12/2/2022

League One · Round 20Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Peterborough45%

×Draw23%

Barnsley32%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeterboroughExpected goals in this matchBarnsley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.54

Peterborough

1.85

Barnsley

1.54

Peterborough creates 20% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 6 away

2.04

creates per match

1.53

1.54

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Peterborough

2.04

Barnsley

1.53

allows per match

Peterborough

1.54

Barnsley

1.67

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

+0.30scores more than expected

finishing

Peterborough+0.21scores more

Barnsley+0.30scores more

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Barnsley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw

68%

Peterborough or Barnsley

77%

Draw or Barnsley

55%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+

25%

Barnsley wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals

84%

Peterborough 2+ goals

55%

Peterborough 3+ goals

28%

Barnsley 1+ goals

79%

Barnsley 2+ goals

45%

Barnsley 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)

58%

Barnsley (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.54 · 12 matches

Barnsley away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 2.04 + Barnsley defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.85

Barnsley attack 1.53 + Peterborough defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Peterborough scores more

45%

level

23%

Barnsley scores more

32%

Peterborough at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

48

L. Connell

Barnsley · M

7.3

Match Events

11'

L. Connell

21'

J. Taylor↳ K. Poku

38'

Adam Phillips

60'

J. Benson← T. Edwards

61'

A. Phillips↳ H. Kane

69'

J. Marriott← J. Fuchs

69'

H. Burrows← B. Thompson

69'

J. Norwood← J. Aitchison

75'

R. Jones← E. Mason-Clark

77'

R. Cundy← J. Benson

83'

Herbie Kane

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PeterboroughBarnsley

Overview

59%Possession41%

6Total Shots4

3Corners2

10Fouls11

Shots

6Total Shots4

1On Target3

4Off Target0

1Blocked1

6Inside Box1

0Outside Box3

Passing

59%Possession41%

450Total Passes317

314Accurate Passes193

70%Pass Accuracy61%

Discipline

10Fouls11

0Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2