Peterborough 0–0 Barnsley: Result & Stats

Peterborough

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Barnsley

11/27/2021

Championship · Round 20Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Peterborough42%

×Draw27%

Barnsley31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeterboroughExpected goals in this matchBarnsley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.12

Peterborough

1.36

Barnsley

1.12

Peterborough creates 21% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 76 away

1.19

creates per match

0.93

1.31

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Peterborough

1.19

Barnsley

0.93

allows per match

Peterborough

1.31

Barnsley

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par

Barnsley+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Barnsley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw

69%

Peterborough or Barnsley

73%

Draw or Barnsley

58%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+

20%

Barnsley wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals

74%

Peterborough 2+ goals

39%

Peterborough 3+ goals

16%

Barnsley 1+ goals

67%

Barnsley 2+ goals

31%

Barnsley 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)

58%

Barnsley (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

Barnsley away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.54 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.19 + Barnsley defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.36

Barnsley attack 0.93 + Peterborough defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Peterborough scores more

42%

level

27%

Barnsley scores more

31%

Peterborough at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff