Pescara 1–2 Empoli: Result & Stats | Serie B

Pescara

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Empoli

F. Maistro 32'

S. Moreo 63'

S. Romagnoli 6'

10/17/2020

Serie B · Round 3Stadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Pescara44%

×Draw24%

Empoli32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PescaraExpected goals in this matchEmpoli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.42

Pescara

1.71

Empoli

1.42

Pescara creates 20% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

1.77

creates per match

1.27

1.56

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Pescara

1.77

Empoli

1.27

allows per match

Pescara

1.56

Empoli

1.64

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Pescara-0.17scores less

Empoli-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pescara ↓

Empoli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Pescara or draw

68%

Pescara or Empoli

76%

Draw or Empoli

56%

Winning margin

Pescara wins by 2+

23%

Empoli wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Pescara 1+ goals

82%

Pescara 2+ goals

51%

Pescara 3+ goals

24%

Empoli 1+ goals

76%

Empoli 2+ goals

41%

Empoli 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Pescara (draw refunded)

58%

Empoli (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pescara at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.56 · 5 matches

Empoli away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.64 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pescara attack 1.77 + Empoli defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.71

Empoli attack 1.27 + Pescara defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Pescara scores more

44%

level

24%

Empoli scores more

32%

Pescara at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Pescara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

F. Bandinelli

Empoli · M

7.9

Match Events

3'

Filippo Bandinelli

6'

S. Romagnoli↳ L. Štulac

32'

F. Maistro↳ C. Ventola

34'

Christian Ventola

63'

S. Moreo↳ R. Fiamozzi

70'

L. Memushaj← M. Valdifiori

70'

A. Diambo← M. Busellato

70'

S. Ricci← A. La Mantia

71'

N. Bajrami← N. Haas

79'

M. Olivieri← S. Moreo

82'

N. Belloni← M. Bočić

82'

A. Riccardi← C. Ventola

83'

G. Scognamiglio← S. Omeonga

90+1'

R. Pirrello← L. Štulac

90'

S. Damiani← L. Mancuso

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PescaraEmpoli

Overview

54%Possession46%

16Total Shots13

8Corners7

8Fouls17

Shots

16Total Shots13

4On Target5

7Off Target6

5Blocked2

8Inside Box9

8Outside Box4

Passing

54%Possession46%

498Total Passes405

422Accurate Passes336

85%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls17

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2