Empoli 4–2 Pescara: Result & Stats | Serie B

Empoli

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Pescara

D. Fila 80'

S. Shpendi 65', 9'

M. Lovato 33'

A. Di Nardo 47', 41'

3/22/2026

Serie B · Round 32Stadio Carlo Castellani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Empoli54%

×Draw24%

Pescara21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EmpoliExpected goals in this matchPescara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

0.97

Empoli

1.70

Pescara

0.97

Empoli creates 75% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 72 away

1.69

creates per match

0.96

0.98

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Empoli

1.69

Pescara

0.96

allows per match

Empoli

0.98

Pescara

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Empoli+0.00on par

Pescara+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Empoli ↓

Pescara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Empoli or draw

79%

Empoli or Pescara

76%

Draw or Pescara

46%

Winning margin

Empoli wins by 2+

30%

Pescara wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Empoli 1+ goals

82%

Empoli 2+ goals

51%

Empoli 3+ goals

24%

Pescara 1+ goals

62%

Pescara 2+ goals

25%

Pescara 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Empoli (draw refunded)

72%

Pescara (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Empoli at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.98 · 58 matches

Pescara away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.71 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Empoli attack 1.69 + Pescara defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.70

Pescara attack 0.96 + Empoli defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Empoli scores more

54%

level

24%

Pescara scores more

21%

Empoli at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Empoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

M. Lovato

Empoli · D

8.2

Match Events

2'

Gerard Yepes

9'

S. Shpendi↳ E. Saporiti

13'

Gennaro Acampora

13'

Gennaro AcamporaCard upgrade

26'

Duccio Degli Innocenti

28'

N. Haas← D. Degli Innocenti

32'

Antonio Di Nardo

33'

M. Lovato↳ E. Saporiti

41'

A. Di Nardo

46'

A. Ghion← G. Yepes

46'

D. Fila← B. Popov

47'

A. Di Nardo

49'

Andrea Cagnano

64'

F. Bianchi← E. Saporiti

65'

S. Shpendi↳ G. Guarino

67'

L. Berardi← F. Caligara

74'

G. Olzer← L. Valzania

80'

D. Fila

82'

A. Gravillon← G. Letizia

82'

F. Russo← A. Di Nardo

84'

L. Ignacchiti← S. Shpendi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EmpoliPescara

Overview

56%Possession44%

24Total Shots13

3.55Expected Goals (xG)0.97

6Corners9

18Fouls19

Shots

24Total Shots13

9On Target6

12Off Target4

3Blocked3

17Inside Box9

7Outside Box4

Passing

56%Possession44%

442Total Passes359

389Accurate Passes286

88%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

1.04Goals Prevented1.04

Discipline

18Fouls19

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

4Offsides2

Serie B: Empoli 4–2 Pescara

Empoli beat Pescara 4-2 in Serie B on March 22, 2026.

Goals: S. Shpendi (9', 65'), M. Lovato (33'), A. Di Nardo (41', 47'), D. Fila (80').

Empoli controlled possession (56%) and registered 24 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stadio Carlo Castellani in Empoli.

Empoli vs Pescara — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Empoli 4–2 Pescara