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Empoli vs Pescara — Serie B 2018

Empoli
Empoli
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Pescara
Pescara
A. La Mantia 72'
S. Ricci 62'
Pepín 79'
M. Busellato 49'
2/9/2021Serie BSerie B · Round 22Stadio Carlo Castellani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Empoli54%
×Draw24%
Pescara21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Empoli
1.70
Pescara
0.97

Empoli creates 75% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 72 away

creates per match

Empoli
1.69
Pescara
0.96

allows per match

Empoli
0.98
Pescara
1.71

finishing

Empoli+0.00on par
Pescara+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Empoli ↓

Pescara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Empoli or draw
79%
Empoli or Pescara
76%
Draw or Pescara
46%

Winning margin

Empoli wins by 2+
30%
Pescara wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Empoli 1+ goals
82%
Empoli 2+ goals
51%
Empoli 3+ goals
24%
Pescara 1+ goals
62%
Pescara 2+ goals
25%
Pescara 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Empoli (draw refunded)
72%
Pescara (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Empoli at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.98 · 58 matches

Pescara away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.71 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Empoli attack 1.69 + Pescara defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.70

Pescara attack 0.96 + Empoli defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Empoli scores more
54%
level
24%
Pescara scores more
21%

Empoli at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Empoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32
N. HaasEmpoliEmpoli · M
7.9

Match Events

23'
Ryder Matos Santos Pinto
30'
Damir Ceter
39'
Salvatore Bocchetti
49'
M. Busellato
57'
Massimiliano Busellato
59'
J. Odgaard← D. Ceter
60'
S. Omeonga← M. Busellato
61'
N. Bajrami← S. Moreo
61'
L. Mancuso← Ryder Matos
61'
A. La Mantia← M. Olivieri
62'
S. Ricci
67'
N. Rigoni← M. Valdifiori
72'
A. La Mantia↳ N. Bajrami
75'
R. Bellanova← A. Balzano
76'
M. Nzita← E. Masciangelo
79'
Pepín
82'
S. Damiani← L. Štulac
90+1'
A. Cambiaso← R. Pirrello

Possession

72%Empoli

Shots

23Empoli

Pass accuracy

58%Empoli

Statistics

EmpoliPescara
Overview
72%Possession28%
23Total Shots9
9Corners3
11Fouls20
Shots
23Total Shots9
6On Target6
9Off Target3
8Blocked0
14Inside Box7
9Outside Box2
Passing
72%Possession28%
583Total Passes225
496Accurate Passes140
85%Pass Accuracy62%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
11Fouls20
1Yellow Cards3
1Offsides3

Match Recap: Empoli vs Pescara

Empoli and Pescara drew 2-2 in Serie B on February 9, 2021.

Goals: M. Busellato (49'), S. Ricci (62'), A. La Mantia (72'), Pepín (79').

Empoli controlled possession (72%) and registered 23 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stadio Carlo Castellani in Empoli.