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CS Constantine vs JSM Bejaia — Ligue 1 2018

CS Constantine
CS Constantine
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
JSM Bejaia
JSM Bejaia
11/23/2013Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 12Stade Mohamed-Hamlaoui

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

CS Constantine50%
×Draw27%
JSM Bejaia23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Constantine
1.42
JSM Bejaia
0.87

CS Constantine creates 63% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 3 away

creates per match

CS Constantine
1.50
JSM Bejaia
1.00

allows per match

CS Constantine
0.74
JSM Bejaia
1.33

finishing

CS Constantine+0.00on par
JSM Bejaia+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Constantine ↓

JSM Bejaia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

CS Constantine or draw
77%
CS Constantine or JSM Bejaia
73%
Draw or JSM Bejaia
50%

Winning margin

CS Constantine wins by 2+
25%
JSM Bejaia wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

CS Constantine 1+ goals
76%
CS Constantine 2+ goals
41%
CS Constantine 3+ goals
17%
JSM Bejaia 1+ goals
58%
JSM Bejaia 2+ goals
22%
JSM Bejaia 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

CS Constantine (draw refunded)
68%
JSM Bejaia (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Constantine at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.74 · 125 matches

JSM Bejaia away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Constantine attack 1.50 + JSM Bejaia defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

JSM Bejaia attack 1.00 + CS Constantine defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

CS Constantine scores more
50%
level
27%
JSM Bejaia scores more
23%

CS Constantine at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "CS Constantine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Recap: CS Constantine vs JSM Bejaia

CS Constantine and JSM Bejaia drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on November 23, 2013.

The match was played at Stade Mohamed-Hamlaoui in Constantine.