CS Constantine 2–2 JSM Bejaia: Result & Stats

CS Constantine

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

JSM Bejaia

H. Boulemdaïs 88' (pen), 70'

M. Derrag 74'

B. Bahloul 58'

9/29/2012

Ligue 1 · Round 4Stade Mohamed-Hamlaoui

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

CS Constantine46%

×Draw28%

JSM Bejaia26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CS ConstantineExpected goals in this matchJSM Bejaia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.92

CS Constantine

1.33

JSM Bejaia

0.92

CS Constantine creates 45% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 3 away

1.34

creates per match

1.00

0.84

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

CS Constantine

1.34

JSM Bejaia

1.00

allows per match

CS Constantine

0.84

JSM Bejaia

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CS Constantine+0.00on par

JSM Bejaia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Constantine ↓

JSM Bejaia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

CS Constantine or draw

74%

CS Constantine or JSM Bejaia

72%

Draw or JSM Bejaia

54%

Winning margin

CS Constantine wins by 2+

22%

JSM Bejaia wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

CS Constantine 1+ goals

74%

CS Constantine 2+ goals

38%

CS Constantine 3+ goals

15%

JSM Bejaia 1+ goals

60%

JSM Bejaia 2+ goals

23%

JSM Bejaia 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

CS Constantine (draw refunded)

64%

JSM Bejaia (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Constantine at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.84 · 32 matches

JSM Bejaia away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Constantine attack 1.34 + JSM Bejaia defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

JSM Bejaia attack 1.00 + CS Constantine defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

CS Constantine scores more

46%

level

28%

JSM Bejaia scores more

26%

CS Constantine at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "CS Constantine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'

B. Bahloul

61'

M. Derrag← L. Boussaha

64'

A. Belakhdar← A. Zarabi

70'

H. Boulemdaïs

74'

M. Derrag

84'

A. Messaoudi← Y. Djillali

88'

H. BoulemdaïsPenalty

90+2'

Y. Djebarat← R. Bourakba

CS

JSM

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

64'▲A. Belakhdar←▼A. Zarabi

84'▲A. Messaoudi←▼Y. Djillali

CS Constantine substitutes

BelakhdarMessaoudi

61'▲M. Derrag←▼L. Boussaha

90+2'▲Y. Djebarat←▼R. Bourakba

JSM Bejaia substitutes

DerragDjebarat