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JSM Bejaia vs CS Constantine — Ligue 1 2018

JSM Bejaia
JSM Bejaia
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
CS Constantine
CS Constantine
I. Tatem 88'
T. Bouabta 58'
F. Benmansour 24'
H. Boulemdaïs 29'
5/10/2014Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 27Stade de l'Unité Maghrébine

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

JSM Bejaia50%
×Draw30%
CS Constantine20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JSM Bejaia
1.23
CS Constantine
0.65

JSM Bejaia creates 89% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 124 away

creates per match

JSM Bejaia
1.33
CS Constantine
0.96

allows per match

JSM Bejaia
0.33
CS Constantine
1.12

finishing

JSM Bejaia+0.00on par
CS Constantine+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JSM Bejaia ↓

CS Constantine →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

JSM Bejaia or draw
80%
JSM Bejaia or CS Constantine
70%
Draw or CS Constantine
50%

Winning margin

JSM Bejaia wins by 2+
23%
CS Constantine wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

JSM Bejaia 1+ goals
71%
JSM Bejaia 2+ goals
35%
JSM Bejaia 3+ goals
13%
CS Constantine 1+ goals
48%
CS Constantine 2+ goals
14%
CS Constantine 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

JSM Bejaia (draw refunded)
72%
CS Constantine (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JSM Bejaia at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

CS Constantine away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.12 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JSM Bejaia attack 1.33 + CS Constantine defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.23

CS Constantine attack 0.96 + JSM Bejaia defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

JSM Bejaia scores more
50%
level
30%
CS Constantine scores more
20%

JSM Bejaia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "JSM Bejaia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
F. Benmansour
29'
H. Boulemdaïs
58'
T. Bouabta
88'
I. Tatem

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: JSM Bejaia 3–1 CS Constantine

JSM Bejaia beat CS Constantine 3-1 in Ligue 1 on May 10, 2014.

Goals: F. Benmansour (24'), H. Boulemdaïs (29'), T. Bouabta (58'), I. Tatem (88').

The match was played at Stade de l'Unité Maghrébine in Béjaïa.