Perugia 1–1 Frosinone: Result & Stats | Serie B

Perugia

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Frosinone

T. Casasola 62'

S. Mulattieri 77'

4/1/2023

Serie B · Round 31Stadio Renato Curi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Perugia35%

×Draw29%

Frosinone36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PerugiaExpected goals in this matchFrosinone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.14

Perugia

1.13

Frosinone

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 117 away

1.18

creates per match

1.19

1.08

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Perugia

1.18

Frosinone

1.19

allows per match

Perugia

1.08

Frosinone

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Perugia+0.00on par

Frosinone+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Perugia ↓

Frosinone →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Perugia or draw

64%

Perugia or Frosinone

71%

Draw or Frosinone

65%

Winning margin

Perugia wins by 2+

14%

Frosinone wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Perugia 1+ goals

68%

Perugia 2+ goals

31%

Perugia 3+ goals

11%

Frosinone 1+ goals

68%

Frosinone 2+ goals

32%

Frosinone 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Perugia (draw refunded)

50%

Frosinone (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Perugia at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.08 · 73 matches

Frosinone away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.08 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Perugia attack 1.18 + Frosinone defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.13

Frosinone attack 1.19 + Perugia defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Perugia scores more

35%

level

29%

Frosinone scores more

36%

Frosinone at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Frosinone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

F. Lisi

Perugia · M

7.3

Match Events

17'

18'

34'

43'

54'

55'

55'

S. Mulattieri← L. Moro

62'

T. Casasola↳ A. Rosi

72'

Y. Paz← F. Lisi

72'

G. Di Serio← Ryder Matos

77'

E. Ekong← S. Di Carmine

77'

E. Iannoni← L. Capezzi

77'

S. Mulattieri↳ G. Caso

79'

J. Báez← R. Insigne

79'

L. Mazzitelli← M. Rohdén

80'

F. Sgarbi← A. Rosi

82'

Sergio Kalaj

88'

L. Garritano← F. Gelli

90+2'

Yeferson Paz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PerugiaFrosinone

Overview

41%Possession59%

13Total Shots17

6Corners1

16Fouls17

Shots

13Total Shots17

4On Target3

6Off Target8

3Blocked6

10Inside Box8

3Outside Box9

Passing

41%Possession59%

264Total Passes409

156Accurate Passes307

59%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls17

4Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1