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Perugia vs Frosinone — Serie B 2018

Perugia
Perugia
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Frosinone
Frosinone
C. Kouan 88'
P. Iemmello 34' (pen), 22' (pen)
L. Paganini 2'
9/24/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 5Stadio Renato Curi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Perugia35%
×Draw29%
Frosinone36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Perugia
1.13
Frosinone
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 117 away

creates per match

Perugia
1.18
Frosinone
1.19

allows per match

Perugia
1.08
Frosinone
1.08

finishing

Perugia+0.00on par
Frosinone+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Perugia ↓

Frosinone →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Perugia or draw
64%
Perugia or Frosinone
71%
Draw or Frosinone
65%

Winning margin

Perugia wins by 2+
14%
Frosinone wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Perugia 1+ goals
68%
Perugia 2+ goals
31%
Perugia 3+ goals
11%
Frosinone 1+ goals
68%
Frosinone 2+ goals
32%
Frosinone 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Perugia (draw refunded)
50%
Frosinone (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Perugia at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.08 · 73 matches

Frosinone away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.08 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Perugia attack 1.18 + Frosinone defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.13

Frosinone attack 1.19 + Perugia defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Perugia scores more
35%
level
29%
Frosinone scores more
36%

Frosinone at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Frosinone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
P. IemmelloPerugiaPerugia · F
8.5

Match Events

2'
L. Paganini↳ A. Novakovich
20'
Nicolas Haas
22'
P. IemmelloPenalty
34'
A. Iacobucci← F. Bardi
34'
P. IemmelloPenalty
44'
Vlad Dragomir
45'
Luca Paganini
60'
R. Maiello← N. Haas
62'
C. Kouan← V. Dragomir
72'
H. Nicolussi← Paolo Fernandes
75'
F. Sgarbi← N. Falasco
78'
Nicolò Brighenti
79'
M. Trotta← A. Tribuzzi
88'
C. Kouan↳ M. Falzerano

Possession

43%Perugia

Shots

17Perugia

Pass accuracy

49%Perugia

Statistics

PerugiaFrosinone
Overview
43%Possession57%
17Total Shots8
7Corners5
19Fouls16
Shots
17Total Shots8
6On Target4
9Off Target4
2Blocked0
9Inside Box3
8Outside Box5
Passing
43%Possession57%
347Total Passes442
262Accurate Passes349
76%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
19Fouls16
1Yellow Cards3
1Offsides0

Serie B: Perugia 3–1 Frosinone

Perugia beat Frosinone 3-1 in Serie B on September 24, 2019.

Goals: L. Paganini (2'), P. Iemmello (22' pen, 34' pen), C. Kouan (88').

Frosinone controlled possession (57%) and registered 8 shots to 17.

The match was played at Stadio Renato Curi in Perugia.