Frosinone 0–0 Perugia: Result & Stats | Serie B

Frosinone

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Perugia

9/11/2021

Serie B · Round 3Stadio Benito Stirpe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Frosinone46%

×Draw27%

Perugia27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FrosinoneExpected goals in this matchPerugia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.04

Frosinone

1.43

Perugia

1.04

Frosinone creates 38% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 77 away

1.55

creates per match

1.12

0.97

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Frosinone

1.55

Perugia

1.12

allows per match

Frosinone

0.97

Perugia

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Frosinone+0.00on par

Perugia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frosinone ↓

Perugia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Frosinone or draw

73%

Frosinone or Perugia

73%

Draw or Perugia

54%

Winning margin

Frosinone wins by 2+

22%

Perugia wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Frosinone 1+ goals

76%

Frosinone 2+ goals

42%

Frosinone 3+ goals

17%

Perugia 1+ goals

65%

Perugia 2+ goals

28%

Perugia 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Frosinone (draw refunded)

63%

Perugia (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frosinone at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.97 · 116 matches

Perugia away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.31 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frosinone attack 1.55 + Perugia defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.43

Perugia attack 1.12 + Frosinone defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Frosinone scores more

46%

level

27%

Perugia scores more

27%

Frosinone at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Frosinone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

L. Chichizola

Perugia · G

7.9

Match Events

25'

Raffaele Maiello

28'

Francesco Lisi

42'

F. Sgarbi← C. DellOrco

45'

Marcello Falzerano

60'

E. Cicerelli← L. Canotto

60'

M. Rohdén← R. Maiello

60'

A. Tribuzzi← A. Zerbin

62'

Aleandro Rosi

69'

Ryder Matos← J. Murano

70'

G. Ferrarini← M. Falzerano

72'

Mirko Carretta

74'

G. Charpentier← L. Garritano

79'

S. Santoro← M. Carretta

79'

81'

81'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FrosinonePerugia

Overview

41%Possession59%

13Total Shots12

7Corners2

12Fouls16

Shots

13Total Shots12

4On Target3

8Off Target7

1Blocked2

4Inside Box5

9Outside Box7

Passing

41%Possession59%

301Total Passes465

218Accurate Passes373

72%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls16

3Yellow Cards4