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Peru vs Paraguay — Friendlies 2026

Peru
Peru
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Paraguay
Paraguay
6/8/2024FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Estadio Monumental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Peru54%
×Draw26%
Paraguay21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peru
1.52
Paraguay
0.83

Peru creates 83% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 26 away

creates per match

Peru
1.36
Paraguay
0.81

allows per match

Peru
0.86
Paraguay
1.69

finishing

Peru+0.00on par
Paraguay+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peru ↓

Paraguay →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Peru or draw
79%
Peru or Paraguay
74%
Draw or Paraguay
46%

Winning margin

Peru wins by 2+
28%
Paraguay wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Peru 1+ goals
78%
Peru 2+ goals
45%
Peru 3+ goals
20%
Paraguay 1+ goals
56%
Paraguay 2+ goals
20%
Paraguay 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Peru (draw refunded)
72%
Paraguay (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peru at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.86 · 22 matches

Paraguay away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.69 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peru attack 1.36 + Paraguay defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.52

Paraguay attack 0.81 + Peru defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Peru scores more
54%
level
26%
Paraguay scores more
21%

Peru at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Peru will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
O. AldereteParaguayParaguay · D
7.9

Match Events

64'
A. Carrillo← W. Cartagena
64'
P. Guerrero← J. Rivera
64'
J. Enciso← M. Almirón
65'
A. Bareiro← A. Arce
66'
Adam Bareiro
72'
Junior Alonso
73'
L. Advíncula← P. Quispe
73'
S. Peña← M. López
74'
Carlos Zambrano
79'
Alejandro Romero← M. Rojas
90'
J. Castillo← R. Tapia
90'
É. Flores← G. Lapadula

Possession

50%Peru

Shots

7Peru

Pass accuracy

49%Peru

Statistics

PeruParaguay
Overview
50%Possession50%
7Total Shots7
4Corners5
12Fouls15
Shots
7Total Shots7
0On Target4
5Off Target2
2Blocked1
2Inside Box3
5Outside Box4
Passing
50%Possession50%
384Total Passes390
298Accurate Passes311
78%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
4Saves0
Discipline
12Fouls15
1Yellow Cards2
2Offsides2

Friendlies: Peru 0–0 Paraguay

Peru and Paraguay drew 0-0 in Friendlies on June 8, 2024.

Peru controlled possession (50%) and registered 7 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental in Lima.