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Peru vs Paraguay — Copa America 2019

Peru
Peruadvanced
Pens
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Paraguay
Paraguay
M. Trauco 120+12' (pen)
R. Tapia 120+8' (pen)
Y. Yotún 120+4' (pen), 80'
G. Lapadula 120+2' (pen), 40'
G. Gómez 21' (OG)
R. Piris Da Motta 120+9' (pen)
J. Alonso 120+3' (pen), 54'
Ángel Romero 120+1' (pen)
G. Ávalos 90'
G. Gómez 11'
7/2/2021Copa AmericaCopa America · Quarter-finalsEstádio Olímpico Pedro Ludovico Teixeira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Peru37%
×Draw41%
Paraguay22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peru
0.73
Paraguay
0.48

Peru creates 52% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

Peru
0.33
Paraguay
0.63

allows per match

Peru
0.33
Paraguay
1.13

finishing

Peru+0.00on par
Paraguay+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Under
  • Under88
  • Over12

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

80%No
  • No80
  • Yes20

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peru ↓

Paraguay →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–030%
0–114%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–110%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–14%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (30%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
70%30%1.5
34%66%2.5
12%88%3.5
3%97%4.5
1%99%

Double chance

Peru or draw
78%
Peru or Paraguay
59%
Draw or Paraguay
63%

Winning margin

Peru wins by 2+
11%
Paraguay wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Peru 1+ goals
52%
Peru 2+ goals
17%
Peru 3+ goals
4%
Paraguay 1+ goals
38%
Paraguay 2+ goals
8%
Paraguay 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Peru (draw refunded)
63%
Paraguay (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
9%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peru at home — creates 0.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Paraguay away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peru attack 0.33 + Paraguay defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.73

Paraguay attack 0.63 + Peru defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Peru scores more
37%
level
41%
Paraguay scores more
22%

Peru at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Peru will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
Y. YotúnPeruPeru · M
8.9

Match Events

11'
G. Gómez
15'
Anderson Santamaría
21'
G. GómezOwn goal
40'
G. Lapadula↳ Y. Yotún
42'
Gustavo Gómez
45+3'
Gustavo Gómez
45+3'
Gustavo Gómez
46'
R. Rojas← Á. Cardozo Lucena
49'
Mathias Villasanti
54'
J. Alonso
60'
Christian Cueva
60'
S. Ormeño← S. Peña
68'
B. Samudio← C. González
75'
André Carrillo
79'
R. Piris Da Motta← M. Villasanti
80'
Y. Yotún↳ A. Carrillo
83'
J. Enciso← S. Arzamendia
83'
G. Ávalos← R. Sánchez
85'
André Carrillo
85'
André Carrillo
87'
Alberto Espinola
90+2'
J. Lora← A. Corzo
90'
G. Ávalos
120+1'
Ángel RomeroPenalty
120+2'
G. LapadulaPenalty
120+3'
J. AlonsoPenalty
120+4'
Y. YotúnPenalty
120+5'
H. MartínezMissed penalty
120+6'
S. OrmeñoMissed penalty
120+7'
B. SamudioMissed penalty
120+8'
R. TapiaPenalty
120+9'
R. Piris Da MottaPenalty
120+10'
C. CuevaMissed penalty
120+11'
A. EspínolaMissed penalty
120+12'
M. TraucoPenalty

Possession

55%Peru

Shots

12Peru

Pass accuracy

53%Peru

Statistics

PeruParaguay
Overview
55%Possession45%
12Total Shots14
3Corners6
19Fouls13
Shots
12Total Shots14
6On Target8
5Off Target3
1Blocked3
6Inside Box8
6Outside Box6
Passing
55%Possession45%
411Total Passes329
347Accurate Passes251
84%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
5Saves3
Discipline
19Fouls13
4Yellow Cards4
1Red Cards1
0Offsides3

Peru 3 – 3 Paraguay

Peru and Paraguay drew 3-3 in Copa America on July 2, 2021.

Goals: G. Gómez (11', 21' o.g.), G. Lapadula (40', 120+2' pen), J. Alonso (54', 120+3' pen), Y. Yotún (80', 120+4' pen), G. Ávalos (90'), Ángel Romero (120+1' pen), R. Tapia (120+8' pen), R. Piris Da Motta (120+9' pen), M. Trauco (120+12' pen).

Peru controlled possession (55%) and registered 12 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estádio Olímpico Pedro Ludovico Teixeira in Goiânia, Goiás.