Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Peru vs Paraguay — Friendlies 2026

Peru
Peru
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Paraguay
Paraguay
A. Valera 49'
11/17/2022FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Estadio Monumental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Peru54%
×Draw26%
Paraguay21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peru
1.52
Paraguay
0.83

Peru creates 83% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 26 away

creates per match

Peru
1.36
Paraguay
0.81

allows per match

Peru
0.86
Paraguay
1.69

finishing

Peru+0.00on par
Paraguay+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peru ↓

Paraguay →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Peru or draw
79%
Peru or Paraguay
74%
Draw or Paraguay
46%

Winning margin

Peru wins by 2+
28%
Paraguay wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Peru 1+ goals
78%
Peru 2+ goals
45%
Peru 3+ goals
20%
Paraguay 1+ goals
56%
Paraguay 2+ goals
20%
Paraguay 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Peru (draw refunded)
72%
Paraguay (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peru at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.86 · 22 matches

Paraguay away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.69 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peru attack 1.36 + Paraguay defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.52

Paraguay attack 0.81 + Peru defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Peru scores more
54%
level
26%
Paraguay scores more
21%

Peru at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Peru will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
C. AscuesPeruPeru · D
7.6

Match Events

15'
Mathias Villasanti
16'
Carlos Ascues
33'
Bryan Reyna
36'
Marcos López
36'
Richard Ortiz
46'
C. Cueva← J. Rivera
46'
M. Rojas← M. Almirón
49'
A. Valera↳ C. Gonzáles
62'
A. Succar← A. Valera
62'
L. Iberico← B. Reyna
65'
D. González← J. Medina
66'
B. Ojeda← R. Ortiz
74'
Gustavo Gómez
75'
A. Arias← C. Gonzáles
84'
Alexander Succar
84'
Fabián Balbuena
89'
L. Abram← W. Cartagena
89'
S. Ferreira← J. Enciso

Possession

56%Peru

Shots

9Peru

Pass accuracy

52%Peru

Statistics

PeruParaguay
Overview
56%Possession44%
9Total Shots17
3Corners4
15Fouls12
Shots
9Total Shots17
5On Target3
3Off Target7
1Blocked7
4Inside Box8
5Outside Box9
Passing
56%Possession44%
446Total Passes340
365Accurate Passes262
82%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
15Fouls12
3Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards1
0Offsides3

Peru 1 – 0 Paraguay

Peru beat Paraguay 1-0 in Friendlies on November 17, 2022.

Goals: A. Valera (49').

Peru controlled possession (56%) and registered 9 shots to 17.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental in Lima.