Persepolis FC 2–0 Al Sadd: Result & Stats

Persepolis FC

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Al Sadd

Ali Alipour 67'

Mehdi Torabi 16'

5/20/2019

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 6Azadi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Persepolis FC49%

×Draw26%

Al Sadd25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Persepolis FCExpected goals in this matchAl Sadd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.03

Persepolis FC

1.54

Al Sadd

1.03

Persepolis FC creates 50% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 34 away

1.47

creates per match

1.26

0.80

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Persepolis FC

1.47

Al Sadd

1.26

allows per match

Persepolis FC

0.80

Al Sadd

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Persepolis FC+0.00on par

Al Sadd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Persepolis FC ↓

Al Sadd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Persepolis FC or draw

75%

Persepolis FC or Al Sadd

74%

Draw or Al Sadd

51%

Winning margin

Persepolis FC wins by 2+

25%

Al Sadd wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Persepolis FC 1+ goals

79%

Persepolis FC 2+ goals

45%

Persepolis FC 3+ goals

20%

Al Sadd 1+ goals

64%

Al Sadd 2+ goals

28%

Al Sadd 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Persepolis FC (draw refunded)

66%

Al Sadd (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Persepolis FC at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.80 · 30 matches

Al Sadd away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.62 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Persepolis FC attack 1.47 + Al Sadd defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.54

Al Sadd attack 1.26 + Persepolis FC defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Persepolis FC scores more

49%

level

26%

Al Sadd scores more

25%

Persepolis FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Persepolis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Mehdi Torabi

Persepolis FC · M

8.4

Match Events

16'

Mehdi Torabi↳ Ahmad Nourollahi

55'

Mohammad Naderi← Shayan Mosleh

57'

Shoja Khalilzadeh

61'

Alireza Beiranvand

65'

Pedro Miguel

67'

Ali Alipour↳ Mehdi Torabi

70'

Hamid Ismail← Woo-Young Jung

78'

Ali Asadalla← Pedro Miguel

80'

Mehdi Sharifi← Soroush Rafiei

84'

Hassan Ahmad Palang← Hasan Al Haydos

86'

Mehdi Torabi

88'

Mohammad Asadi← Mehdi Torabi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PersepolisAl

Overview

54%Possession46%

17Total Shots11

6Corners7

13Fouls10

Shots

17Total Shots11

6On Target3

8Off Target7

3Blocked1

8Inside Box6

9Outside Box5

Passing

54%Possession46%

520Total Passes430

444Accurate Passes349

85%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls10

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides4