Al Sadd 1–0 Persepolis FC: Result & Stats

Al Sadd

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Persepolis FC

M. Uribe 45+2'

10/21/2024

AFC Champions League · League Stage - 3Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Al Sadd53%

×Draw24%

Persepolis FC22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al SaddExpected goals in this matchPersepolis FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

0.98

Al Sadd

1.66

Persepolis FC

0.98

Al Sadd creates 69% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 27 away

2.06

creates per match

0.81

1.15

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Al Sadd

2.06

Persepolis FC

0.81

allows per match

Al Sadd

1.15

Persepolis FC

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Sadd+0.00on par

Persepolis FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Sadd ↓

Persepolis FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Al Sadd or draw

78%

Al Sadd or Persepolis FC

76%

Draw or Persepolis FC

47%

Winning margin

Al Sadd wins by 2+

29%

Persepolis FC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Al Sadd 1+ goals

81%

Al Sadd 2+ goals

49%

Al Sadd 3+ goals

23%

Persepolis FC 1+ goals

62%

Persepolis FC 2+ goals

26%

Persepolis FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Al Sadd (draw refunded)

70%

Persepolis FC (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Sadd at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.15 · 33 matches

Persepolis FC away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.26 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Sadd attack 2.06 + Persepolis FC defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.66

Persepolis FC attack 0.81 + Al Sadd defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Al Sadd scores more

53%

level

24%

Persepolis FC scores more

22%

Al Sadd at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Al Sadd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

Meshaal Barsham

Al Sadd · G

8.2

Match Events

26'

Romain Saïss

45+1'

S. Sahraei← F. Faraji

45+2'

M. Uribe

54'

Masoud Rigi

65'

S. Rafiei← M. Rigi

65'

F. Ahmadzadeh← V. Amiri

71'

Hashim Ali← Cristo González

71'

Hassan Al Haydos← Rafa Mújica

73'

Tarek Salman

79'

Mohammed Waad← Paulo Otávio

79'

I. Alekasir← Lucas João

83'

Hashim Ali

90+2'

Mostafa Meshaal← M. Camara

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlPersepolis

Overview

49%Possession51%

11Total Shots24

6Corners4

11Fouls11

Shots

11Total Shots24

5On Target6

6Off Target11

0Blocked7

6Inside Box13

5Outside Box11

Passing

49%Possession51%

388Total Passes395

315Accurate Passes320

81%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls11

3Yellow Cards1

3Offsides2