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Al Sadd vs Persepolis FC — AFC Champions League 2018

Al Sadd
Al Sadd
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Persepolis FC
Persepolis FC
3/12/2019AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 2Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Al Sadd52%
×Draw24%
Persepolis FC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Sadd
1.66
Persepolis FC
1.02

Al Sadd creates 63% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 28 away

creates per match

Al Sadd
2.06
Persepolis FC
0.89

allows per match

Al Sadd
1.15
Persepolis FC
1.25

finishing

Al Sadd+0.00on par
Persepolis FC+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Sadd ↓

Persepolis FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Al Sadd or draw
77%
Al Sadd or Persepolis FC
76%
Draw or Persepolis FC
48%

Winning margin

Al Sadd wins by 2+
28%
Persepolis FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Al Sadd 1+ goals
81%
Al Sadd 2+ goals
49%
Al Sadd 3+ goals
23%
Persepolis FC 1+ goals
64%
Persepolis FC 2+ goals
27%
Persepolis FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al Sadd (draw refunded)
69%
Persepolis FC (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Sadd at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.15 · 33 matches

Persepolis FC away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Sadd attack 2.06 + Persepolis FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.66

Persepolis FC attack 0.89 + Al Sadd defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Al Sadd scores more
52%
level
24%
Persepolis FC scores more
23%

Al Sadd at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Al Sadd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Sadd vs Persepolis FC

Al Sadd beat Persepolis FC 1-0 in AFC Champions League on March 12, 2019.

The match was played at Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium in Doha.