Persepolis FC 1–2 Al-Duhail SC: Result & Stats

Persepolis FC

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Al-Duhail SC

S. Zahedi 7'

M. Olunga 83'

Mohammed Muntari 9'

12/5/2023

AFC Champions League · Group E - 6Azadi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Persepolis FC46%

×Draw25%

Al-Duhail SC29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Persepolis FCExpected goals in this matchAl-Duhail SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.21

Persepolis FC

1.60

Al-Duhail SC

1.21

Persepolis FC creates 32% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 26 away

1.47

creates per match

1.62

0.80

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Persepolis FC

1.47

Al-Duhail SC

1.62

allows per match

Persepolis FC

0.80

Al-Duhail SC

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Persepolis FC+0.00on par

Al-Duhail SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Persepolis FC ↓

Al-Duhail SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Persepolis FC or draw

71%

Persepolis FC or Al-Duhail SC

75%

Draw or Al-Duhail SC

54%

Winning margin

Persepolis FC wins by 2+

24%

Al-Duhail SC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Persepolis FC 1+ goals

80%

Persepolis FC 2+ goals

47%

Persepolis FC 3+ goals

22%

Al-Duhail SC 1+ goals

70%

Al-Duhail SC 2+ goals

34%

Al-Duhail SC 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Persepolis FC (draw refunded)

62%

Al-Duhail SC (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Persepolis FC at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.80 · 30 matches

Al-Duhail SC away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.73 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Persepolis FC attack 1.47 + Al-Duhail SC defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.60

Al-Duhail SC attack 1.62 + Persepolis FC defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Persepolis FC scores more

46%

level

25%

Al-Duhail SC scores more

29%

Persepolis FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Persepolis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

M. Torabi

Persepolis FC · M

8.6

Match Events

7'

9'

26'

43'

48'

63'

Karim Boudiaf← I. Bamba

64'

M. Olunga← Mohammed Muntari

65'

M. Omri← S. Sadeghi

75'

Luiz Ceará← Lotfi Madjer

75'

Kim Moon-Hwan← I. Lihadji

82'

Yousef Ayman

83'

M. Olunga↳ Youssef Ayman

85'

Mohammed Al Naimi← M. Olunga

86'

86'

88'

90+6'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PersepolisAl-Duhail

Overview

62%Possession38%

20Total Shots10

12Corners1

7Fouls21

Shots

20Total Shots10

5On Target4

7Off Target5

8Blocked1

14Inside Box6

6Outside Box4

Passing

62%Possession38%

521Total Passes334

435Accurate Passes250

83%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

7Fouls21

2Yellow Cards4

4Offsides3