Persepolis FC 0–1 Al-Duhail SC: Result & Stats

Persepolis FC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Al-Duhail SC

9/21/2020

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 5Education City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Persepolis FC46%

×Draw25%

Al-Duhail SC29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Persepolis FCExpected goals in this matchAl-Duhail SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.21

Persepolis FC

1.60

Al-Duhail SC

1.21

Persepolis FC creates 32% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 26 away

1.47

creates per match

1.62

0.80

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Persepolis FC

1.47

Al-Duhail SC

1.62

allows per match

Persepolis FC

0.80

Al-Duhail SC

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Persepolis FC+0.00on par

Al-Duhail SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Persepolis FC ↓

Al-Duhail SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Persepolis FC or draw

71%

Persepolis FC or Al-Duhail SC

75%

Draw or Al-Duhail SC

54%

Winning margin

Persepolis FC wins by 2+

24%

Al-Duhail SC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Persepolis FC 1+ goals

80%

Persepolis FC 2+ goals

47%

Persepolis FC 3+ goals

22%

Al-Duhail SC 1+ goals

70%

Al-Duhail SC 2+ goals

34%

Al-Duhail SC 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Persepolis FC (draw refunded)

62%

Al-Duhail SC (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Persepolis FC at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.80 · 30 matches

Al-Duhail SC away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.73 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Persepolis FC attack 1.47 + Al-Duhail SC defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.60

Al-Duhail SC attack 1.62 + Persepolis FC defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Persepolis FC scores more

46%

level

25%

Al-Duhail SC scores more

29%

Persepolis FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Persepolis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff