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Al-Duhail SC vs Persepolis FC — AFC Champions League 2018

Al-Duhail SC
Al-Duhail SC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Persepolis FC
Persepolis FC
10/2/2023AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group E - 2Abdullah bin Nasser bin Khalifa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Al-Duhail SC51%
×Draw24%
Persepolis FC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Duhail SC
1.73
Persepolis FC
1.15

Al-Duhail SC creates 50% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 28 away

creates per match

Al-Duhail SC
2.21
Persepolis FC
0.89

allows per match

Al-Duhail SC
1.41
Persepolis FC
1.25

finishing

Al-Duhail SC+0.00on par
Persepolis FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Duhail SC ↓

Persepolis FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Al-Duhail SC or draw
75%
Al-Duhail SC or Persepolis FC
76%
Draw or Persepolis FC
49%

Winning margin

Al-Duhail SC wins by 2+
28%
Persepolis FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Al-Duhail SC 1+ goals
82%
Al-Duhail SC 2+ goals
52%
Al-Duhail SC 3+ goals
25%
Persepolis FC 1+ goals
68%
Persepolis FC 2+ goals
32%
Persepolis FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Al-Duhail SC (draw refunded)
67%
Persepolis FC (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Duhail SC at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.41 · 29 matches

Persepolis FC away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Duhail SC attack 2.21 + Persepolis FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.73

Persepolis FC attack 0.89 + Al-Duhail SC defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Al-Duhail SC scores more
51%
level
24%
Persepolis FC scores more
25%

Al-Duhail SC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Al-Duhail SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Duhail SC vs Persepolis FC

Persepolis FC beat Al-Duhail SC 1-0 in AFC Champions League on October 2, 2023.

The match was played at Abdullah bin Nasser bin Khalifa Stadium in Doha.