Persepolis FC 2–0 Al-Ahli Jeddah: Result & Stats

Persepolis FC

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Al-Ahli Jeddah

Ali Alipour 48'

Shoja Khalilzadeh 18'

4/9/2019

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 3Zabeel Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Persepolis FC41%

×Draw26%

Al-Ahli Jeddah32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Persepolis FCExpected goals in this matchAl-Ahli Jeddah

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.19

Persepolis FC

1.38

Al-Ahli Jeddah

1.19

Persepolis FC creates 16% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 31 away

1.47

creates per match

1.58

0.80

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Persepolis FC

1.47

Al-Ahli Jeddah

1.58

allows per match

Persepolis FC

0.80

Al-Ahli Jeddah

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Persepolis FC+0.00on par

Al-Ahli Jeddah+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Persepolis FC ↓

Al-Ahli Jeddah →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Persepolis FC or draw

68%

Persepolis FC or Al-Ahli Jeddah

74%

Draw or Al-Ahli Jeddah

59%

Winning margin

Persepolis FC wins by 2+

19%

Al-Ahli Jeddah wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Persepolis FC 1+ goals

75%

Persepolis FC 2+ goals

40%

Persepolis FC 3+ goals

16%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 1+ goals

70%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 2+ goals

33%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Persepolis FC (draw refunded)

56%

Al-Ahli Jeddah (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Persepolis FC at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.80 · 30 matches

Al-Ahli Jeddah away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.29 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Persepolis FC attack 1.47 + Al-Ahli Jeddah defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.38

Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.58 + Persepolis FC defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Persepolis FC scores more

41%

level

26%

Al-Ahli Jeddah scores more

32%

Persepolis FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Persepolis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

Shoja Khalilzadeh

Persepolis FC · D

8.2

Match Events

18'

Shoja Khalilzadeh

48'

Ali Alipour↳ Ahmad Nourollahi

49'

Djaniny

60'

Bashar Resan

61'

Mario Budimir← Bashar Resan

68'

Ayman Al-Khalif← Abdulrahman Ghareeb

76'

Mario Budimir

76'

Hussein Al Sulaimani

84'

Muhannad Asiri← Abdulfattah Asiri

85'

Shayan Mosleh← Mehdi Torabi

90'

Saeed Al Muwallad

90'

Mohsen Rabikhah← Ali Alipour

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PersepolisAl-Ahli

Overview

42%Possession58%

9Total Shots12

5Corners7

14Fouls12

Shots

9Total Shots12

3On Target2

4Off Target6

2Blocked4

3Inside Box7

6Outside Box5

Passing

42%Possession58%

329Total Passes435

246Accurate Passes353

75%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls12

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1