Al-Ahli Jeddah 2–1 Persepolis FC: Result & Stats

Al-Ahli Jeddah

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Persepolis FC

Omar Al-Soma 83', 30' (pen)

Shoja Khalilzadeh 90'

4/22/2019

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 4Al Maktoum Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Al-Ahli Jeddah52%

×Draw25%

Persepolis FC23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Ahli JeddahExpected goals in this matchPersepolis FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.00

Al-Ahli Jeddah

1.63

Persepolis FC

1.00

Al-Ahli Jeddah creates 63% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 28 away

2.00

creates per match

0.89

1.10

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Al-Ahli Jeddah

2.00

Persepolis FC

0.89

allows per match

Al-Ahli Jeddah

1.10

Persepolis FC

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Ahli Jeddah+0.00on par

Persepolis FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ahli Jeddah ↓

Persepolis FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Al-Ahli Jeddah or draw

77%

Al-Ahli Jeddah or Persepolis FC

75%

Draw or Persepolis FC

48%

Winning margin

Al-Ahli Jeddah wins by 2+

28%

Persepolis FC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Al-Ahli Jeddah 1+ goals

80%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 2+ goals

48%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 3+ goals

22%

Persepolis FC 1+ goals

63%

Persepolis FC 2+ goals

26%

Persepolis FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Al-Ahli Jeddah (draw refunded)

69%

Persepolis FC (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ahli Jeddah at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.10 · 31 matches

Persepolis FC away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 2.00 + Persepolis FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Persepolis FC attack 0.89 + Al-Ahli Jeddah defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Al-Ahli Jeddah scores more

52%

level

25%

Persepolis FC scores more

23%

Al-Ahli Jeddah at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Al-Ahli Jeddah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Omar Al-Soma

Al-Ahli Jeddah · F

8.2

Match Events

30'

Omar Al-SomaPenalty

49'

Ali Alipour

50'

Djaniny

58'

Shoja Khalilzadeh

61'

Soroush Rafiei← Bashar Resan

71'

Mohammad Asadi← Mehdi Torabi

71'

Omid Alishah← Ahmad Nourollahi

73'

Taisir Al-Jassim← Abdulrahman Ghareeb

83'

Omar Al-Soma

83'

Abdullah Tarmin← Djaniny

83'

Mohammed Al-Fatil← Mohammed Al-Fatil

86'

Abdullah Tarmin

90'

Shoja Khalilzadeh↳ Soroush Rafiei

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Al-AhliPersepolis

Overview

40%Possession60%

10Total Shots17

2Corners7

14Fouls13

Shots

10Total Shots17

5On Target4

2Off Target8

3Blocked5

4Inside Box8

6Outside Box9

Passing

40%Possession60%

291Total Passes431

222Accurate Passes362

76%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2