Al-Ahli Jeddah 1–3 Persepolis FC: Result & Stats

Al-Ahli Jeddah

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Persepolis FC

Saleh Al Jamaan 52'

M. Taremi 90+4' (pen)

G. Mensha 83' (pen)

A. Alipour 5'

9/12/2017

AFC Champions League · Quarter-finalsMohammed Bin Zayed

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Al-Ahli Jeddah52%

×Draw25%

Persepolis FC23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Ahli JeddahExpected goals in this matchPersepolis FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.00

Al-Ahli Jeddah

1.63

Persepolis FC

1.00

Al-Ahli Jeddah creates 63% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 28 away

2.00

creates per match

0.89

1.10

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Al-Ahli Jeddah

2.00

Persepolis FC

0.89

allows per match

Al-Ahli Jeddah

1.10

Persepolis FC

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Ahli Jeddah+0.00on par

Persepolis FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ahli Jeddah ↓

Persepolis FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Al-Ahli Jeddah or draw

77%

Al-Ahli Jeddah or Persepolis FC

75%

Draw or Persepolis FC

48%

Winning margin

Al-Ahli Jeddah wins by 2+

28%

Persepolis FC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Al-Ahli Jeddah 1+ goals

80%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 2+ goals

48%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 3+ goals

22%

Persepolis FC 1+ goals

63%

Persepolis FC 2+ goals

26%

Persepolis FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Al-Ahli Jeddah (draw refunded)

69%

Persepolis FC (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ahli Jeddah at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.10 · 31 matches

Persepolis FC away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 2.00 + Persepolis FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Persepolis FC attack 0.89 + Al-Ahli Jeddah defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Al-Ahli Jeddah scores more

52%

level

25%

Persepolis FC scores more

23%

Al-Ahli Jeddah at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Al-Ahli Jeddah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

Saleh Al Jamaan

Al-Ahli Jeddah · F

8.1

Match Events

5'

A. Alipour↳ M. Mosalman

11'

Kamal Kamyabinia

36'

Waleed Bakshween

37'

Farshad Ahmadzadeh

46'

Hussain Al Mogahwi← Waleed Bakshween

52'

Saleh Al Jamaan↳ Taisir Al Jassim

56'

Hossein Mahini

61'

Bashar Rasan Bonyan← M. Mosalman

65'

G. Mensha← A. Alipour

73'

Mohammad Ansari

75'

Ali Hassan Al Asmari← Saleh Al Jamaan

77'

S. Mosleh← F. Ahmadzadeh

81'

Motaz Hawsawi

83'

G. MenshaPenalty

85'

Mohanad Aseri← Taisir Al Jassim

88'

Mohamed Abd El-Shafy

90+4'

M. TaremiPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Al-AhliPersepolis

Overview

63%Possession37%

13Total Shots11

2Corners8

17Fouls17

Shots

13Total Shots11

5On Target5

7Off Target2

1Blocked4

7Inside Box7

6Outside Box4

Passing

63%Possession37%

494Total Passes278

414Accurate Passes206

84%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

17Fouls17

2Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards1

1Offsides0