Pendikspor 2–0 Bandırmaspor: Result & Stats

Pendikspor

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bandırmaspor

H. Maldar 90'

D. Denic 60'

8/16/2025

1. Lig · Round 2Pendik Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Pendikspor45%

×Draw25%

Bandırmaspor30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PendiksporExpected goals in this matchBandırmaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.18

Pendikspor

1.52

Bandırmaspor

1.18

Pendikspor creates 29% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

1.80

creates per match

1.24

1.12

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Pendikspor

1.80

Bandırmaspor

1.24

allows per match

Pendikspor

1.12

Bandırmaspor

1.24

-1.13scores less than expected

finishing

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

Pendikspor-1.13scores less

Bandırmaspor-0.24scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pendikspor ↓

Bandırmaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Pendikspor or draw

70%

Pendikspor or Bandırmaspor

75%

Draw or Bandırmaspor

55%

Winning margin

Pendikspor wins by 2+

22%

Bandırmaspor wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Pendikspor 1+ goals

78%

Pendikspor 2+ goals

45%

Pendikspor 3+ goals

20%

Bandırmaspor 1+ goals

69%

Bandırmaspor 2+ goals

33%

Bandırmaspor 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Pendikspor (draw refunded)

60%

Bandırmaspor (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pendikspor at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.12 · 6 matches

Bandırmaspor away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.24 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pendikspor attack 1.80 + Bandırmaspor defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.52

Bandırmaspor attack 1.24 + Pendikspor defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Pendikspor scores more

45%

level

25%

Bandırmaspor scores more

30%

Pendikspor at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Pendikspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

D. Denic

Pendikspor · M

8.2

Match Events

32'

Remi Mulumba

49'

Stelios Kitsiou

56'

B. Karadeniz← H. Yesil

60'

Leandro Bacuna

60'

D. Denic

62'

H. Ciftci← M. Gumuskaya

62'

J. Topalli← D. Ndongala

69'

H. Maldar← A. Karademir

69'

Douglas Tanque← W. Samake

76'

Đorđe Denić

79'

F. C. Genc← B. Messaoudi

87'

Rogerio Thuram← J. Clarke-Harris

88'

Utku Yuvakuran

88'

B. Sulungoz← M. Wilks

88'

G. Bitin← S. Kitsiou

90'

Atınç Nukan

90'

H. Maldar↳ M. Ozdemir

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PendiksporBandırmaspor

Overview

52%Possession48%

12Total Shots10

6Corners4

19Fouls17

Shots

12Total Shots10

9On Target2

3Off Target4

0Blocked4

6Inside Box7

6Outside Box3

Passing

52%Possession48%

371Total Passes359

303Accurate Passes283

82%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

19Fouls17

3Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2

1. Lig: Pendikspor 2–0 Bandırmaspor

Pendikspor beat Bandırmaspor 2-0 in 1. Lig on August 16, 2025.

Goals: D. Denic (60'), H. Maldar (90').

Pendikspor controlled possession (52%) and registered 12 shots to 10.

The match was played at Pendik Stadyumu in Istanbul.

Pendikspor vs Bandırmaspor — 1. Lig 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

1. Lig: Pendikspor 2–0 Bandırmaspor